Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsTennis · Oct 16, 10:55 PM PDT YOUR RESEARCH TASK FORECASTEmerson Jones RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established Current TORK62.3% Simple average62.3% Calibrated average63.4% Kalshi73.0% Inspect the methods and progress →
Emerson Jones vs Heather Watson
62.3%Emerson Jones
LOCKED Oct 16, 10:00 PM PDT4/4 independent models select Emerson Jones; all four oriented probabilities average 62.25%.
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- Read the original forecast before the outcome.
- Check the recorded official result and source context.
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23 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Grok: Emerson Jones current rank 122 vs Heather Watson null rank
- Gemini: Emerson Jones has a current ranking of 122 and 602 ranking points.
- Claude: Jones ranked 122 with improving trend (134 to 122) and 602 points
- GPT: Emerson Jones has an explicit current rank of 122; Heather Watson has no supplied current rank.
Read all four model reports
Grok · Emerson Jones · 62.0%
Emerson Jones holds an explicit WTA rank of 122 with 602 ranking points and a 24-21 singles record, while Heather Watson has null rank and points but a 15-13 record. The ranking differential and comparable win rates favor Jones as the stronger player on supplied facts alone. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable as they are not supplied in the evidence package.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 16, 5:02 PM PDTGemini · Emerson Jones · 58.0%
Emerson Jones enters the match with a known WTA ranking of 122 and a season record of 24 wins and 21 losses. Heather Watson lacks a current ranking in the provided data, though she holds a comparable season win percentage with 15 wins and 13 losses. Given Jones's established ranking and greater match volume this season, she is favored slightly. However, confidence remains low as surface form, injuries, head-to-head records, travel context, and market odds are unavailable.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 16, 5:02 PM PDTClaude · Emerson Jones · 69.0%
Jones holds an explicit current WTA ranking of 122 with upward momentum (previous 134) and 602 ranking points, plus a winning 24-21 season record. Watson has no supplied ranking at all, implying she sits outside the listed ranking pool, and carries a more modest 15-13 record likely accumulated at lower-tier events. In a qualifying first round, the ranked, trending-up player is the clear favorite, though qualifying draws are volatile and Watson is an experienced tour veteran capable of upsets. Surface-specific form, injury status, head-to-head history, travel/fatigue, and market odds are all unavailable in this evidence package, which caps confidence and keeps the estimate well short of a dominant edge.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 16, 5:02 PM PDTGPT · Emerson Jones · 60.0%
Using only the supplied evidence, Emerson Jones has the stronger documented profile: a current WTA rank of 122 with an improved previous rank of 134, plus a 24-21 season singles record. Heather Watson’s supplied evidence includes only a 15-13 season singles record, with no current rank or ranking points provided. Jones therefore has the clearer edge based on the available ranking evidence and a slightly stronger volume-backed season record. Because this is a qualifying match and the evidence package explicitly does not provide surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, or market odds, the estimate should remain moderate rather than aggressive.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 16, 5:02 PM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- No surface-specific form or venue details provided
- No head-to-head history supplied
- No injury or travel status available
- No market odds or betting lines included
- Evidence limited to ESPN ranking and season win-loss only
- Surface-specific form is unavailable.
- Injury reports are not supplied.
- Head-to-head records are missing.
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- 1.3 percentage points higher for Emerson Jones
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
d290bc8669dba07b84388a98d3e31fa05aa15661de83dea5507d5b4853cdb1ea - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
1f17bfddc55bc1d7e049da95bb2cc4e386e47a886073b60e6cfe1c076c128dbb
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
All probabilities below refer to Emerson Jones. Model inputs were fixed at Oct 16, 10:00 PM PDT. The market was observed at Oct 16, 9:55 PM PDT.
Comparison record
Saved Oct 16, 10:00 PM PDT. This is a research comparison; no method has been promoted.
30439747137689fdefa4febede9841616ae4fddedf9d9ee3fe61ebe6403e86f6Available source context
site.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗
These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.
Recorded outcome: Emerson Jones (AUS) bt Heather Watson (GBR) 6-3 6-3
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