Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsNFL · Oct 4, 10:00 AM PDT YOUR RESEARCH TASK FORECASTChicago Bears RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established Current TORK62.5% Simple average62.5% Calibrated average63.7% Kalshi63.0% Inspect the methods and progress →
New York Jets vs Chicago Bears
62.5%Chicago Bears
LOCKED Oct 4, 9:30 AM PDT4/4 independent models select Chicago Bears; all four oriented probabilities average 62.5%.
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- Read the model reasons and reported limits.
- Inspect available source context; record missing sources.
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17 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Claude: DraftKings line CHI -3.5 implies roughly a 62-66% home win probability
- Gemini: Chicago Bears are favored by 3.5 points.
- GPT: Chicago is the home team at Soldier Field.
- Grok: Bears hold 2-1 record versus Jets 1-2
Read all four model reports
Claude · Chicago Bears · 64.0%
Chicago is home favored at -3.5 (DraftKings), which historically converts to roughly a 62-66% win probability. Records agree with the market direction (CHI 2-1 vs NYJ 1-2), and home-field at Soldier Field adds modest support. No injury or quarterback detail is provided in either direction, so I stay near the market-implied baseline rather than adjusting further. The low total (43.5) implies a lower-scoring game, which slightly compresses favorite win probability, so I sit at the lower-middle of the -3.5 range.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Sep 29, 5:25 PM PDTGemini · Chicago Bears · 64.0%
The Chicago Bears are favored by 3.5 points at home against the New York Jets. A -3.5 point spread typically translates to an implied win probability of approximately 63-65%. The Bears also hold a better early-season record (2-1) compared to the Jets (1-2).
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Sep 29, 5:25 PM PDTGPT · Chicago Bears · 61.0%
The best immutable comparative evidence favors Chicago: the Bears are at home, have the better record (2-1 vs 1-2), and are listed as 3.5-point favorites by the supplied market line. In NFL games, a home favorite of more than a field goal is typically more likely than not to win outright, and the better current record aligns with that direction. With no usable quarterback, weather, or meaningful injury detail in the package, the estimate should stay moderate rather than aggressive. A fair evidence-bounded win probability is Chicago 61%.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Sep 29, 5:25 PM PDTGrok · Chicago Bears · 61.0%
Bears enter at 2-1 with home-field advantage at Soldier Field against a 1-2 Jets team. The DraftKings market line lists CHI -3.5, indicating the home side is favored by a modest margin consistent with a low-60s win probability in a neutral environment adjusted for venue.
xai/grok-4.3 · Sep 29, 5:25 PM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- Injury lists are empty for both teams, likely incomplete rather than genuinely clean
- No quarterback confirmations for either side
- No moneyline odds provided; probability inferred from spread
- No weather data for an early-October outdoor game in Chicago
- Three-game records are a small sample with no strength-of-schedule or scoring data
- Moneyline odds are not provided, requiring probability estimation from the point spread.
- Injury reports are currently empty.
- Weather conditions are not available.
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- 0.5 percentage points higher for Chicago Bears
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
804cdcdd91b459167b71ebc81a627f8727d2fc516e11d5735da0be333d05ef61 - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
37d05b6b235f8024a2e5c0c5c72a16b47fe749014a07eaa1238a4ca886fc80c2
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
All probabilities below refer to Chicago Bears. Model inputs were fixed at Oct 4, 9:30 AM PDT. The market was observed at Oct 4, 9:25 AM PDT.
Comparison record
Saved Oct 4, 9:34 AM PDT. This is a research comparison; no method has been promoted.
8ab154eaa9496fd519d8d9e8baa402593807ee3b3da7673df751b485a6435a04Available source context
These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.
Recorded outcome: New York Jets 12, Chicago Bears 23
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