Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsCollege Football · Oct 10, 7:30 PM PDT YOUR RESEARCH TASK FORECASTBoise State Broncos RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
Fresno State Bulldogs vs Boise State Broncos
73.4%Boise State Broncos
LOCKED Oct 10, 7:01 PM PDT4/4 independent models select Boise State Broncos; all four oriented probabilities average 73.38%.
Check the evidence
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- Read the model reasons and reported limits.
- Inspect available source context; record missing sources.
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17 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Gemini: Boise State is favored by 8.5 points
- Claude: DraftKings line BOIS -8.5 implies ~77-80% win probability for Boise State
- Grok: Boise State ranked 23, Fresno State unranked
- GPT: Both teams are 4-1, so win-loss record is even.
Read all four model reports
Gemini · Boise State Broncos · 76.5%
Boise State is ranked number 23 and is favored by 8.5 points on the road against a 4-1 Fresno State team. An 8.5-point spread typically translates to a win probability of around 75 to 78 percent for the favorite.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 10, 12:38 PM PDTClaude · Boise State Broncos · 77.0%
Both teams are 4-1, but Boise State is ranked No. 23 while Fresno State is unranked, and DraftKings installs Boise State as a 8.5-point favorite despite playing on the road at Valley Children's Stadium. A road favorite of that size implies a materially stronger team quality assessment; historical conversion of a 8.5-point spread to moneyline win probability sits in roughly the 76-80% range with a total of 48.5 (slightly below-average scoring environment, which marginally favors the better team). I shade to the low end of that band to respect home-field variance and the absence of injury/efficiency data.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 10, 12:38 PM PDTGrok · Boise State Broncos · 68.0%
Both teams enter at 4-1, but Boise State is ranked 23rd while Fresno State is unranked. The market line shows Boise State favored by 8.5 points at Fresno State's home venue, indicating a substantial talent or efficiency edge for the Broncos despite the road environment. This spread and ranking differential translate to an estimated win probability in the high 60s for Boise State.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 10, 12:38 PM PDTGPT · Boise State Broncos · 72.0%
Boise State is the stronger side in the supplied evidence package. Both teams have identical 4-1 records, so record alone does not separate them. The meaningful comparative signals are that Boise State is ranked No. 23 while Fresno State is unranked in the package, and the market line lists Boise State as an 8.5-point favorite. An 8.5-point road-favorite designation at Fresno State's venue is a substantial indicator of expected superiority. Home field for Fresno State matters, but the ranking and especially the market spread outweigh that single venue advantage. Based only on these immutable facts, Boise State should be favored to win at roughly the low-70s percent level.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 10, 12:38 PM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- Missing advanced team efficiency metrics
- No injury reports or depth-chart changes provided
- Weather conditions and recent game performance are unknown
- No injury, QB status, or depth-chart information supplied
- No advanced efficiency metrics (SP+, EPA, success rate) available
- Strength of schedule behind each 4-1 record is unknown
- Only a single sportsbook line provided; no line movement or moneyline price
- No weather or travel-context details
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- Probability unchanged
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
ba4f6c19cbf8c4941d2d7afce542eed98b06cd116fed234d56c409d992cb92a7 - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
b077b107d652a8954b3deaefc6f2b6102d55a975b380c4865227f86d514d1957
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
This event has no eligible record in the new comparison cohort. Historical or late forecasts are not filled in after the event.
Inspect the methods and progress →Available source context
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Recorded outcome: Final
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