Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsNFL · Sep 28, 5:15 PM PDT FORECASTPhiladelphia Eagles RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
Philadelphia Eagles vs Chicago Bears
62.3%Philadelphia Eagles
LOCKED Sep 28, 4:45 PM PDT4/4 independent models select Philadelphia Eagles; all four oriented probabilities average 62.25%.
16 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Claude: Market line has Philadelphia -3.5 as a road favorite, implying roughly a 62-66% win probability
- Gemini: Market spread of PHI -3.5
- Grok: Eagles 2-0 record vs Bears 1-1 record
- GPT: Philadelphia is 2-0; Chicago is 1-1.
Read all four model reports
Claude · Philadelphia Eagles · 64.0%
DraftKings lists Philadelphia at -3.5 on the road, which implies roughly a 62-66% win probability for the Eagles once standard spread-to-moneyline conversion is applied. A team favored by more than a field goal away from home is typically viewed as clearly stronger, and the modest total of 42.5 slightly firms up the favorite's edge by limiting scoring variance. Records reinforce the line: Philadelphia is 2-0 while Chicago is 1-1. Offsetting factors are home field at Soldier Field and the absence of any injury or quarterback-status information in the package, so the estimate stays near the market-implied figure rather than above it.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Sep 26, 10:00 AM PDTGemini · Philadelphia Eagles · 64.0%
The Philadelphia Eagles are favored by 3.5 points on the road against the Chicago Bears. A -3.5 point spread typically corresponds to an implied win probability of approximately 63-65%. The Eagles' 2-0 start compared to the Bears' 1-1 record further supports their status as favorites despite playing away from home.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Sep 26, 10:00 AM PDTGrok · Philadelphia Eagles · 61.0%
Eagles enter at 2-0 while Bears are 1-1; the road team is favored by 3.5 points, indicating market assessment of superior strength despite venue. Limited comparative data supports a modest edge for Philadelphia.
xai/grok-4.3 · Sep 26, 10:00 AM PDTGPT · Philadelphia Eagles · 60.0%
Philadelphia is the better-supported side from the immutable package. The Eagles are 2-0 versus the Bears at 1-1, and the supplied market evidence lists Philadelphia -3.5 on the road. A road favorite of more than a field goal is meaningful comparative evidence and outweighs Chicago's home field. With no usable injury or quarterback detail beyond empty lists and no weather information, the estimate should stay moderate rather than aggressive. Combining the stronger early record with the market-implied team strength edge yields an evidence-bounded win estimate of 60% for Philadelphia.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Sep 26, 10:00 AM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- Injury lists for both teams are empty, so no availability or quarterback-status information is usable
- No moneyline prices provided; probability derived from the spread alone
- Weather data is null for an outdoor late-September game at Soldier Field
- No efficiency, scoring, or strength-of-schedule metrics beyond two-game records
- Official game-status reports may not have published as of the data timestamp
- No moneyline odds provided directly
- No injury information available
- Early season game (Week 3) means team strength metrics are still stabilizing
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- First recorded forecast
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
2755c28821dd2672da53a966c16cd16fa3b942596157a427c9c757ce3d013851 - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
3ade37b1417b7ec484cc33008600c1a220ae75f232c99974ca516896a701d675
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
This event has no eligible record in the new comparison cohort. Historical or late forecasts are not filled in after the event.
Inspect the methods and progress →Available source context
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Recorded outcome: Philadelphia Eagles 7, Chicago Bears 27
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