Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsTennis · Oct 14, 11:40 PM PDT YOUR RESEARCH TASK FORECASTAlejandro Davidovich Fokina RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established Current TORK67.3% Simple average67.3% Calibrated average68.9% Kalshi48.0% Inspect the methods and progress →
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Arthur Gea
67.3%Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
LOCKED Oct 14, 11:00 PM PDT4/4 independent models select Alejandro Davidovich Fokina; all four oriented probabilities average 67.25%.
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- Read the original forecast before the outcome.
- Check the recorded official result and source context.
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21 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Gemini: Davidovich Fokina's higher ATP ranking (26 vs 56)
- Grok: ATP ranking gap of 30 places favoring Davidovich Fokina
- Claude: Ranking gap: No. 26 vs No. 56 (1930 vs 985 points)
- GPT: ATP rank advantage for Alejandro Davidovich Fokina: 26 vs 56
Read all four model reports
Gemini · Alejandro Davidovich Fokina · 70.0%
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina is ranked 30 places higher than Arthur Gea (26 vs 56) and holds nearly double the ranking points (1930 vs 985). While Gea has a slightly better win percentage this season (66.7% vs 62.8%), Davidovich Fokina has significantly more match experience and wins (27 vs 12) at this level. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 14, 5:01 PM PDTGrok · Alejandro Davidovich Fokina · 68.0%
Davidovich Fokina holds the superior ranking (26 vs 56), more than double the ranking points (1930 vs 985), a stronger season win total (27-16 vs 12-6), and more titles (2 vs 1). These supplied ranking and record facts indicate a clear edge in a quarterfinal setting. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable as they are not supplied in the evidence package.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 14, 5:01 PM PDTClaude · Alejandro Davidovich Fokina · 63.0%
Only current ranking and season win-loss are supplied. Davidovich Fokina is ranked 26 with 1930 points versus Gea at 56 with 985 points, roughly a 30-place and nearly 2x points gap, which historically converts to about a 60-65% win edge at tour level. Season records slightly favor Gea by rate (12-6, .667 vs 27-16, .628), but Gea's much smaller sample and lower points total suggest a thinner, likely lower-tier schedule, so the ranking edge dominates. Surface-specific form, injuries, head-to-head, travel/scheduling, and market odds are all unavailable, so the estimate is anchored near the ranking-gap baseline without adjustment.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 14, 5:01 PM PDTGPT · Alejandro Davidovich Fokina · 68.0%
Using only the supplied evidence, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina has the stronger baseline profile: a substantially better ATP rank (26 vs 56), nearly double the ranking points (1930 vs 985), and a much larger season sample with a strong 27-16 record versus Arthur Gea's 12-6. Gea's win rate is slightly better on percentage, but it comes from a much smaller match sample and against unspecified schedule strength. On the evidence provided, Davidovich Fokina should be favored, though not overwhelmingly because the package does not include surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, or market odds, and Gea is ranked well enough to be a credible quarterfinal opponent.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 14, 5:01 PM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- Surface form is unavailable
- Injuries are unavailable
- Head-to-head records are unavailable
- Travel schedules are unavailable
- Market odds are unavailable
- No surface-specific performance data available
- No injury or physical status information supplied
- Head-to-head history not provided
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- 0.5 percentage points higher for Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
27465dd190ff0ed2569d208b7e05a0c4b1d0e6365209b21e1dcd2ef1101b1bb4 - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
8cb7d04716c48016633dbeb16855b6ccf634fcb22c4a24034c5e29f6583c5d60
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
All probabilities below refer to Alejandro Davidovich Fokina. Model inputs were fixed at Oct 14, 11:00 PM PDT. The market was observed at Oct 14, 10:55 PM PDT.
Comparison record
Saved Oct 14, 11:04 PM PDT. This is a research comparison; no method has been promoted.
42ef0df427728d310dc9f5b5f666a820bda9b2a742267ee52dc35a7e0ec9023fAvailable source context
site.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗site.api.espn.com ↗
These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.
Recorded outcome: (25) Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (ESP) bt Arthur Gea (FRA) 4-1 ret
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