Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsNFL · Oct 18, 10:00 AM PDT FORECASTIndianapolis Colts RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
Tennessee Titans vs Indianapolis Colts
75.0%Indianapolis Colts
NOT LOCKED4/4 independent models select Indianapolis Colts; all four oriented probabilities average 75%.
16 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Gemini: Market spread of IND -7
- Grok: Colts 2-3 record versus Titans 0-5
- Claude: DraftKings line IND -7 implies roughly a 75-78% home win probability
- GPT: DraftKings market line lists Indianapolis as a 7-point home favorite (IND -7).
Read all four model reports
Gemini · Indianapolis Colts · 75.0%
The Indianapolis Colts are 7-point home favorites against the winless Tennessee Titans. Historically, a 7-point favorite in the NFL has an implied win probability of approximately 74-76%. The Colts' 2-3 record also demonstrates better early-season form than the Titans' 0-5 start.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 11, 3:30 PM PDTGrok · Indianapolis Colts · 75.0%
Colts enter at 2-3 while Titans are 0-5; Colts host at Lucas Oil Stadium and carry a -7 market spread. These factors indicate a substantial home favorite edge despite the early-season sample.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 11, 3:30 PM PDTClaude · Indianapolis Colts · 76.0%
Indianapolis is a 7-point home favorite at Lucas Oil Stadium, which historically converts to roughly a 75-78% win probability. The records corroborate the line: Tennessee is 0-5 while Indianapolis is 2-3, and the Colts hold home-field advantage. A total of 44.5 is moderate-to-low, which slightly reduces variance and marginally favors the favorite relative to a shootout environment. No injury data is supplied for either side, so I anchor primarily to the market number rather than adjusting for personnel. I set 76% for Indianapolis, essentially the market-implied figure with no information justifying a meaningful deviation.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 11, 3:30 PM PDTGPT · Indianapolis Colts · 74.0%
The immutable evidence supports Indianapolis as the more likely winner. The Colts are at home and have the clearly better record at 2-3 versus Tennessee's 0-5. Most importantly, the supplied market evidence lists Indianapolis -7 at DraftKings, which is strong comparative evidence that the Colts are materially favored. With no conflicting facts in the package, the best evidence-bounded estimate is that Indianapolis wins a substantial majority of the time, though not overwhelmingly because no quarterback, injury, or efficiency detail is provided beyond the incomplete injury fields.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 11, 3:30 PM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- No moneyline odds provided to give exact market implied probability
- No injury reports available
- Data is from a week prior to the game, leaving room for line movement and roster changes
- No quarterback or injury details supplied
- Records reflect only first five weeks
- Future game with potential for roster changes
- No moneyline prices provided; probability derived from spread conversion
- Injury lists are empty for both teams and may be incomplete pre-game-status report
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Record hash
3a239d9777d110bcecc6440fca76338e8417ccf6ae18b8166a58a6b7fe5072aa
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
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