Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsMLB · Sep 14, 3:40 PM PDT YOUR RESEARCH TASK FORECASTLos Angeles Dodgers RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Cincinnati Reds
75.1%Los Angeles Dodgers
LOCKED Sep 14, 2:46 PM PDT4/4 independent models select Los Angeles Dodgers; all four oriented probabilities average 75.13%.
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16 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
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Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Claude: Starter mismatch: Skubal 2.93 ERA/1.12 WHIP and improving vs Lodolo 5.12 ERA/1.53 WHIP and worsening (5.87/1.74 last 30)
- Gemini: Massive starting pitching advantage for the Dodgers with Tarik Skubal (2.93 ERA) facing Nick Lodolo (5.12 ERA)
- GPT: Season record heavily favors Los Angeles (105-67) over Cincinnati (81-93).
- Grok: Dodgers superior season record and recent form
Read all four model reports
Claude · Los Angeles Dodgers · 72.0%
Every listed input favors Los Angeles. The Dodgers are 105-67 versus Cincinnati's 81-93, and the starting pitching gap is the largest single edge: Skubal (2.93 ERA / 1.12 WHIP season, 2.53 / 1.13 over the last 30 days) against Lodolo (5.12 / 1.53 season, deteriorating to 5.87 / 1.74 recently). Los Angeles also carries better recent offense (6.0 R/G and +3.0 run differential over six games; +1.04 per game over 30) while Cincinnati has been outscored badly (-6.67 per game over six, -2.46 over 30), and the Dodgers hold a bullpen availability edge (50 vs 30). Suppressed park and weather run factors (0.976) slightly favor the superior pitcher. I cap the number near 72 because baseball single games are inherently high-variance and home field plus Cincinnati's lineup being confirmed gives the Reds a real path.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Sep 14, 12:15 PM PDTGemini · Los Angeles Dodgers · 72.5%
The Los Angeles Dodgers hold a significant advantage across all major categories in this matchup. Tarik Skubal has been elite with a 2.93 season ERA and an even better 2.53 ERA over his last 30 days, while Cincinnati's Nick Lodolo has struggled mightily with a 5.12 season ERA and a 5.87 recent ERA. Furthermore, the Dodgers' offense has been potent recently, averaging 6 runs per game over the last 7 days compared to the Reds' 3.167. Combined with a much stronger overall record and better bullpen availability, the Dodgers are clear favorites.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Sep 14, 12:15 PM PDTGPT · Los Angeles Dodgers · 80.0%
The Dodgers have the clearly stronger overall profile in the supplied evidence. They own a much better season record (105-67 vs 81-93), a major starting-pitching edge with Tarik Skubal over Nick Lodolo, and they enter in far better recent form offensively and in run differential. Skubal’s season and recent-30 metrics are strong (2.93 ERA, 1.12 WHIP; 2.53 ERA recent 30), while Lodolo’s are poor and trending worse recently (5.12 ERA, 1.53 WHIP; 5.87 ERA recent 30). The Dodgers also have the stronger recent offense over both the last 7 and last 30 days, and better bullpen availability. With confirmed lineups and no strong park/weather boost to offset the talent gap, Los Angeles is the more likely winner.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Sep 14, 12:15 PM PDTGrok · Los Angeles Dodgers · 76.0%
Dodgers hold a 105-67 record versus Reds 81-93. Skubal (2.93 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, recent 2.53/1.13) faces Lodolo (5.12 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, recent 5.87/1.74). Dodgers recent offense averages 6.0 runs per game over last 6 with +3 differential; Reds average 3.167 with -6.667. Dodgers bullpen availability 50 versus Reds 30. Lineups confirmed and park/weather neutral.
xai/grok-4.3 · Sep 14, 12:15 PM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- Starters are listed but any late scratch would materially change the edge; treat them as probable rather than certain
- Lineup status is marked confirmed, yet 3 away and 2 home changes are noted without identifying which players
- No individual hitter, platoon, injury, or travel/rest detail is supplied
- Bullpen availability is a single index with no reliever-level workload or quality data
- Recent-form windows are small (6 games) and can overstate true talent
- No head-to-head or venue-specific historical results provided
- Inherent variance in baseball means even heavy favorites can lose single games
- Park and weather run factors (0.976) slightly favor pitching, which could suppress scoring and increase variance
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- First recorded forecast
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
3129473d602b32b56eeff2dcde60b5a32f43162f7f64761284aad76e576dc571 - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
3bb8b3f177937279621af0dc66e4c6f802c8d3996dc456f436a4bd1fcfff4a49
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
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Recorded outcome: Los Angeles Dodgers 4, Cincinnati Reds 1
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