Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsCollege Football · Oct 10, 4:30 PM PDT FORECASTAlabama Crimson Tide RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
Alabama Crimson Tide vs Georgia Bulldogs
55.8%Alabama Crimson Tide
LOCKED Oct 10, 4:01 PM PDT4/4 independent models select Alabama Crimson Tide; all four oriented probabilities average 55.75%.
17 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Claude: DraftKings line ALA -2.5 implies ~56-58% Alabama win probability
- Gemini: Alabama is favored by 2.5 points
- Grok: Home venue for Alabama
- GPT: DraftKings market line lists Alabama -2.5, the clearest comparative indicator and one that favors Alabama.
Read all four model reports
Claude · Alabama Crimson Tide · 57.0%
The market line (DraftKings ALA -2.5 at Bryant-Denny) is the single most informative supplied signal and implies Alabama is a modest home favorite. Converting a 2.5-point spread with a total of 51.5 yields roughly a 56-58% win probability for the favorite. Both teams are 5-0, so records provide no separation; the AP-style rankings slightly favor Georgia (No. 2 vs No. 6), which tempers confidence and argues against pushing far above the market-implied number. Home-field advantage at Bryant-Denny is already embedded in the line. I settle at 57%, essentially deferring to the market while acknowledging the ranking gap as a mild counterweight.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 10, 11:08 AM PDTGemini · Alabama Crimson Tide · 57.0%
Alabama is favored by 2.5 points at home in Bryant-Denny Stadium, despite Georgia being ranked higher (#2 vs #6). Both teams are undefeated at 5-0. The market line implies a win probability of roughly 57% for the Crimson Tide.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 10, 11:08 AM PDTGrok · Alabama Crimson Tide · 53.0%
Both teams enter 5-0 with Alabama hosting at Bryant-Denny Stadium. The DraftKings market line lists Alabama as a 2.5-point favorite, indicating a modest home-edge advantage despite Georgia's higher ranking (2 vs 6). No other comparative signals are supplied.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 10, 11:08 AM PDTGPT · Alabama Crimson Tide · 56.0%
Alabama gets the nod because the immutable evidence package includes the strongest comparative signal available: a DraftKings market line of Alabama -2.5 at Bryant-Denny Stadium. A small home favorite in a matchup between two undefeated teams implies Alabama is more likely than Georgia to win, but only modestly. Georgia’s higher ranking (#2 vs #6) pulls the estimate back toward even, while identical 5-0 records provide no separation. Balancing the home field and market edge against Georgia’s stronger ranking supports only a narrow Alabama advantage.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 10, 11:08 AM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- No injury or availability information supplied
- No advanced efficiency, SP+/FPI, or strength-of-schedule data
- Opponent quality behind each 5-0 record unknown
- Single sportsbook line only; no consensus or line-movement history
- Weather and personnel/depth-chart changes unavailable
- Line captured at data_current_at; may have moved before kickoff
- No advanced efficiency metrics
- No injury reports
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- Probability unchanged
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
f5c39c1566eff4a2552ed30c35d42eb2d7ab1ec55ff24b66731156fb2b97e571 - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
f7dd871d808495c4a08460f91410982f1c23b4770e12e0294e8b24a5db2e0aa4
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
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Recorded outcome: Final
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