Tennis · Oct 14, 3:05 AM PDT

Fiona Ferro vs Selena Janicijevic

71.3%Fiona Ferro

LOCKED Oct 14, 2:30 AM PDT

4/4 independent models select Fiona Ferro; all four oriented probabilities average 71.25%.

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FORECASTFiona Ferro

Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.

RELIABILITY4/4 model reports

24 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.

MARKET VALUENot established

A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.

Why the models lean this way

These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.

Grok: Ferro rank 105 vs Janicijevic unranked
Claude: Ferro ranked No. 105 with upward movement (108 -> 105); Janicijevic has no supplied rank
Gemini: Fiona Ferro's 39-18 season win-loss record
GPT: Fiona Ferro has the only explicit current rank provided: No. 105.

Read all four model reports

Grok · Fiona Ferro · 68.0%

Fiona Ferro holds an explicit WTA rank of 105 with 722 ranking points and a 39-18 season singles record, while Selena Janicijevic has no supplied rank or points and a 20-24 record. This supplies a clear statistical edge for Ferro on the supplied facts alone. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable as they are not supplied in the evidence package.

xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 13, 5:02 PM PDT

Claude · Fiona Ferro · 70.0%

Ferro is the only player with a supplied current ranking (No. 105, improved from 108, 722 points) and holds a substantially stronger 2026 record at 39-18 (.684). Janicijevic has no listed ranking and a losing record of 20-24 (.455), implying a lower-tier profile and weaker recent results. Rank plus win-rate differentials of this size typically translate to roughly a 2:1 edge at WTA-adjacent tour level. The absence of a ranking for Janicijevic is ambiguous (could reflect a very low or unprocessed ranking), so I avoid pushing above the low 70s. Surface-specific form, injury status, head-to-head history, travel/scheduling, and market odds are explicitly unavailable in this evidence package.

anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 13, 5:02 PM PDT

Gemini · Fiona Ferro · 72.0%

Fiona Ferro has a significantly better season record with 39 wins and 18 losses (a 68.4% win rate) compared to Selena Janicijevic's 20 wins and 24 losses (a 45.5% win rate). Additionally, Ferro holds a solid ranking of 105, while Janicijevic's ranking is unavailable. Based on these factors, Ferro is the clear favorite.

google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 13, 5:02 PM PDT

GPT · Fiona Ferro · 75.0%

Using only the supplied immutable evidence, Fiona Ferro is the stronger side. She has an explicit current rank of No. 105 with 722 ranking points and a strong 39-18 season singles record, while Selena Janicijevic has no supplied current rank and a weaker 20-24 season singles record. That combination points clearly toward Ferro as the more likely winner. Because the evidence scope is limited to current ranking and overall season record only, this estimate cannot account for important missing factors. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable, so the probability should be kept moderate rather than extreme.

openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 13, 5:02 PM PDT

What remains uncertain

Surface form unavailable
Injuries unavailable
Head-to-head unavailable
Travel unavailable
Market odds unavailable
No surface-specific or recent form data supplied
No surface-specific form data supplied for this indoor/outdoor Lisbon event
No injury, fitness, or withdrawal information

What to watch next

Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.

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What changed before the lock

Oct 14, 2:30 AM PDT · final lock2.0 percentage points lower for Fiona Ferro
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
b03da670b3e6d7f7957681c060b05dc12a091f46472682831484f87e4783112b
Oct 13, 7:35 AM PDT · house adjudication completedFirst recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
9ac853da9f1c2c66d04fc0c8a639629968c8c02cffa9461e70a8dcb7efb592f7

Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.

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Available source context

site.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗site.api.espn.com ↗

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Recorded outcome: (3) Fiona Ferro (FRA) bt Selena Janicijevic (FRA) 7-5 6-1

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