Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsNFL · Oct 25, 10:00 AM PDT FORECASTSan Francisco 49ers RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
San Francisco 49ers vs Atlanta Falcons
67.5%San Francisco 49ers
NOT LOCKED4/4 independent models select San Francisco 49ers; all four oriented probabilities average 67.5%.
18 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Grok: SF record 5-0 vs ATL record 2-3
- Gemini: San Francisco's 5-0 record compared to Atlanta's 2-3 record
- Claude: SF listed as 4.5-point road favorite (implied ~68-72% win probability)
- GPT: San Francisco has the better record in the evidence package (5-0 vs 2-3).
Read all four model reports
Grok · San Francisco 49ers · 67.0%
San Francisco enters at 5-0 while Atlanta is 2-3. The market line lists SF as a 4.5-point road favorite, indicating the oddsmakers view the 49ers as the stronger side. No injury or quarterback data is supplied, and the game is still nearly two weeks away, but the combination of undefeated record and point-spread favoritism supports a clear edge for San Francisco.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 13, 12:30 PM PDTGemini · San Francisco 49ers · 66.0%
The San Francisco 49ers are undefeated at 5-0 and are favored by 4.5 points on the road against the 2-3 Atlanta Falcons. A 4.5-point spread typically implies a win probability of approximately 65-67% for the favorite.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 13, 12:30 PM PDTClaude · San Francisco 49ers · 70.0%
San Francisco is 5-0 and is a 4.5-point road favorite at Atlanta (2-3) per DraftKings. A road spread of -4.5 typically maps to roughly a 68-72% win probability, and the record differential is consistent with that market view. Home-field for Atlanta is already embedded in the line, so no further adjustment is warranted. Both injury lists are empty in the package, which likely reflects incomplete reporting (the game is ~12 days out) rather than full health, so I stay near the market-implied figure rather than pushing higher.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 13, 12:30 PM PDTGPT · San Francisco 49ers · 67.0%
San Francisco is the stronger side in the supplied evidence: the 49ers are 5-0, the Falcons are 2-3, and the only market signal provided makes San Francisco a 4.5-point road favorite. A road favorite of that size generally indicates a meaningful but not overwhelming edge, and the superior record supports that direction. Home field for Atlanta prevents pushing the estimate too high, and the package lacks deeper team-strength detail such as quarterback status, opponent quality, or complete injury context. Within those limits, San Francisco is the more likely winner.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 13, 12:30 PM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- Only win-loss records and one market line provided
- No team or player efficiency metrics
- Injury and quarterback status unknown
- Game still more than 10 days away
- Game is nearly two weeks away
- No moneyline odds provided
- Injury reports are empty and subject to change
- Missing specific player and quarterback availability details
What to watch next
Wait for all required evidence and the pre-event lock. This view is not final.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
ddf1075d911e0c26c5cbecfc4f6fda893edee772cf761ad41e86fc5cb7674b9d
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
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