Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsNFL · Oct 11, 10:00 AM PDT YOUR RESEARCH TASK FORECASTCincinnati Bengals RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established Current TORK72.3% Simple average72.3% Calibrated average74.3% Kalshi75.0% Inspect the methods and progress →
Cincinnati Bengals vs Miami Dolphins
72.3%Cincinnati Bengals
LOCKED Oct 11, 9:30 AM PDT4/4 independent models select Cincinnati Bengals; all four oriented probabilities average 72.25%.
Check the evidence
The most important gap and your next source check.
- Read the model reasons and reported limits.
- Inspect available source context; record missing sources.
- Identify what remains unverified and your next action.
17 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Grok: Bengals 2-2 record vs Dolphins 0-4
- Gemini: Cincinnati is a 7-point road favorite.
- Claude: Market line CIN -7 implies roughly 75-78% win probability for Cincinnati
- GPT: DraftKings lists Cincinnati as a 7-point favorite.
Read all four model reports
Grok · Cincinnati Bengals · 64.0%
Bengals hold a 2-2 record against the Dolphins' 0-4 mark entering week 5. The DraftKings market line lists CIN -7 on the road, which is the strongest comparative signal available and implies the Bengals are the stronger side despite the venue. No countervailing evidence favors Miami.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 11, 7:45 AM PDTGemini · Cincinnati Bengals · 75.0%
The Cincinnati Bengals are 7-point road favorites against the winless Miami Dolphins. In the NFL, a 7-point spread typically implies a win probability of approximately 75%. Miami's 0-4 record further supports Cincinnati as the clear favorite.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 11, 7:45 AM PDTClaude · Cincinnati Bengals · 76.0%
DraftKings lists Cincinnati as a 7-point road favorite, which historically converts to roughly a 75-78% win probability. The market read is corroborated by the records: Cincinnati is 2-2 while Miami is winless at 0-4, so the Bengals carry the stronger form into Hard Rock Stadium. The modest discount for playing on the road and the general variance of single NFL games keeps the estimate below 80%. No injury or weather data is provided, which caps confidence but does not change the direction of the lean.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 11, 7:45 AM PDTGPT · Cincinnati Bengals · 74.0%
The immutable evidence favors Cincinnati on the two most useful comparative signals provided: team records and the market spread. Cincinnati is 2-2 while Miami is 0-4, and the listed DraftKings line is Bengals -7 on the road. A full-touchdown road favorite is a strong indication that Cincinnati is materially more likely to win than lose. Home field for Miami offsets some of that edge, but not enough to overcome both the record gap and the market rating implied by the spread. With no quarterback, weather, or meaningful injury detail available, the estimate should be kept somewhat conservative rather than pushed higher.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 11, 7:45 AM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- No injury reports or quarterback status
- No advanced team or player metrics supplied
- Weather and game-day conditions unknown
- Early 2026 season sample remains small
- Moneyline odds are missing, requiring an estimation from the point spread.
- Injury reports are not provided, which could obscure key player absences.
- Weather conditions are unknown.
- No moneyline prices supplied, so implied probability is derived from the spread only
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- 2.0 percentage points higher for Cincinnati Bengals
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
a6f63f47a4efb8f57e84c89db5753c7d4d845e6af5945daf6451a33cc18882d0 - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
752bf11c0bdda2beae4617ae38da7e4494c139181290e841fafa8a2f0cd29595
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
All probabilities below refer to Cincinnati Bengals. Model inputs were fixed at Oct 11, 9:30 AM PDT. The market was observed at Oct 11, 9:25 AM PDT.
Comparison record
Saved Oct 11, 9:34 AM PDT. This is a research comparison; no method has been promoted.
65a34f2bb010c4d998efefde35d017cc6cfabd3891f6c42f09df75587a595ba5Available source context
These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.
Recorded outcome: Cincinnati Bengals 31, Miami Dolphins 24
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