Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsMLB · Sep 13, 4:20 PM PDT YOUR RESEARCH TASK FORECASTSan Diego Padres RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants
63.0%San Diego Padres
LOCKED Sep 13, 3:30 PM PDT4/4 independent models select San Diego Padres; all four oriented probabilities average 63%.
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15 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Claude: Record gap: Padres 91-80 vs Giants 78-97
- Gemini: Nick Pivetta's dominant recent performance (0.00 ERA, 0.40 WHIP in last 30 days)
- Grok: Padres better season record and recent offense
- GPT: Padres have the much better season record: 91-80 versus Giants 78-97.
Read all four model reports
Claude · San Diego Padres · 62.0%
San Diego is the stronger team on every supplied dimension. Records: 91-80 vs 78-97, a large gap in true talent over a full season. Pitching edge: Pivetta (3.43 ERA, 0.95 WHIP) is both better on the season and sharply better recently (0.00 ERA, 0.40 WHIP over the last 30 days) than Webb (4.10 ERA, 1.15 WHIP) who has struggled badly of late (7.15 ERA, 1.54 WHIP). Padres also lead the last-5-game form (6.2 R/G, +2.4 run differential vs 5.0 and 0.0) and the 30-day run differential (+0.73 vs -0.39), despite a lower 30-day runs per game. Bullpen availability is essentially even (52 vs 51). Home-field advantage and a slightly run-suppressing park partially offset the Padres' edge, so I cap the probability in the low 60s rather than higher.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Sep 13, 3:30 PM PDTGemini · San Diego Padres · 62.0%
The San Diego Padres have a distinct advantage in starting pitching, with Nick Pivetta showing exceptional recent form (0.00 ERA and 0.40 WHIP over the last 30 days) compared to Logan Webb's recent struggles (7.15 ERA and 1.54 WHIP). Additionally, the Padres possess a significantly better season record and have been highly productive offensively over the past week, averaging 6.2 runs per game.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Sep 13, 3:30 PM PDTGrok · San Diego Padres · 61.0%
Padres hold a superior 91-80 record versus Giants 78-97. Pivetta posts strong recent metrics (0.00 ERA, 0.40 WHIP) while Webb shows sharp decline (7.15 ERA, 1.54 WHIP). Padres recent-five offense averages 6.2 runs with +2.4 differential; Giants post 5.0 runs and zero differential. Bullpen availability nearly identical and lineups confirmed.
xai/grok-4.3 · Sep 13, 3:30 PM PDTGPT · San Diego Padres · 67.0%
San Diego has the stronger overall case from the supplied snapshot. The Padres own a much better season record (91-80 vs 78-97), have been the better recent run-differential team over both the last 7 and last 30 days, and appear to have the starting-pitching edge based on the listed metrics. Nick Pivetta’s season numbers (3.43 ERA, 0.95 WHIP) and especially his recent-30 line (0.00 ERA, 0.40 WHIP) compare favorably to Logan Webb’s 4.10 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, and poor recent-30 form (7.15 ERA, 1.54 WHIP). San Francisco’s offense has scored a bit more than San Diego over the last 30 days, but the Giants still carry a negative run differential in that span, while the Padres are positive. Bullpen availability is essentially even, lineup status is confirmed, and the park slightly suppresses runs, which does not materially offset San Diego’s broader edge. The main caution is that baseball outcomes in
openai/gpt-5.4 · Sep 13, 3:30 PM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- Starters are listed as probables and can be scratched; no confirmation of actual game-day availability
- Lineup listed as confirmed but with 3 away and 4 home changes, so offensive inputs may not reflect the units on the field
- Pivetta's 0.00 recent-30 ERA implies a very small sample and is not sustainable
- No platoon splits, defense, travel, rest, or injury detail supplied
- No odds or market information provided, and none inferred
- Small-sample 5-game offense figures are noisy
- The 30-day pitching statistics may represent a small sample size of starts, potentially exaggerating recent trends.
- A high weather run factor (1.076) suggests conditions favorable for scoring, which can increase game variance and unpredictability.
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- First recorded forecast
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
89abc72f2eb39b62e0c7c420c102d38261b6059480616e98597a6f85ee657639 - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
532a52ad24f94c97db14528298929dd095958406f67970a0795a39939d343404
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
This event has no eligible record in the new comparison cohort. Historical or late forecasts are not filled in after the event.
Inspect the methods and progress →Available source context
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Recorded outcome: San Diego Padres 6, San Francisco Giants 4
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