Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsCollege Football · Oct 13, 4:00 PM PDT FORECASTPending RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders vs Delaware Blue Hens
—No winner forecast available
LOCKED Oct 13, 3:32 PM PDT4/4 models favor Delaware Blue Hens, but the mean probability (53.5%) is below the house threshold.
17 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Gemini: Delaware is a 1.5-point road favorite
- Claude: DraftKings line DEL -1.5 implies a narrow Delaware edge (~54%)
- Grok: Identical 2-3 records for both teams
- GPT: Both teams have identical 2-3 records.
Read all four model reports
Gemini · Delaware Blue Hens · 54.0%
Delaware is favored by 1.5 points on the road against Middle Tennessee. Both teams hold identical 2-3 records, but the market line indicates a slight edge for the Blue Hens despite the away venue. A 1.5-point spread typically translates to roughly a 54% implied win probability.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 10, 12:38 PM PDTClaude · Delaware Blue Hens · 54.0%
Both teams enter 2-3 with no rankings, so records provide no differentiation. The only comparative signal is the DraftKings line of DEL -1.5, which implies Delaware is a slight favorite; a 1.5-point spread historically converts to roughly a 53-56% win probability. There is a provenance wrinkle: the listed venue (Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium) is Middle Tennessee's home field, yet the visiting-listed side is favored, so the market already prices Delaware as modestly stronger on a neutral/road-adjusted basis. I defer to the market as the most information-dense input and set Delaware just above a coin flip.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 10, 12:38 PM PDTGrok · Delaware Blue Hens · 53.0%
Both teams enter with identical 2-3 records and no rankings provided. The supplied DraftKings market line lists Delaware as a 1.5-point favorite, supplying the only comparative signal. Venue is Middle Tennessee's home stadium, yet the line still favors Delaware, indicating a slight edge for the Blue Hens.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 10, 12:38 PM PDTGPT · Delaware Blue Hens · 53.0%
The immutable evidence shows a very close matchup: both teams are 2-3, neither team is ranked, and the only comparative signal is the market line listing Delaware as a 1.5-point favorite. Because the game is at Middle Tennessee's home venue, that small line implies Delaware is still viewed as slightly stronger even after accounting for location. With equal records and no rankings edge, the best evidence-bounded estimate is a narrow Delaware win probability a bit above 50%.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 10, 12:38 PM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- Missing advanced efficiency metrics
- No injury or depth chart information
- Lack of weather or specific matchup data
- No injury reports, depth-chart, or availability information
- No advanced efficiency, strength-of-schedule, or scoring-margin data
- Possible venue/home-away labeling inconsistency in the source facts
- Single market provider; no line movement or consensus available
- Records given without opponent quality context
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- First recorded forecast
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
30954152cd83220fb3ba22c3157c993312717ef46a4f796face0b2aab2323055 - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
278c40a6c9c581e21461b84914f20252d231add0a9b37cfb9cc98686c7552020
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
This event has no eligible record in the new comparison cohort. Historical or late forecasts are not filled in after the event.
Inspect the methods and progress →Available source context
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Recorded outcome: Final
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