Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsTennis · Oct 17, 8:00 AM PDT FORECASTPending RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
Tom Gentzsch vs Aziz Dougaz
—No winner forecast available
LOCKED Oct 17, 7:30 AM PDT2/4 models published a direction, but no side earned a three-model majority.
20 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Grok: Null ranks for both players
- Claude: No ATP rank, previous rank, or ranking points supplied for either player
- Gemini: Tom Gentzsch has no rank and a 0-1 season record.
- GPT: Both players have no current rank supplied, removing the strongest usual comparison point.
Read all four model reports
Grok · No selection
Both players have null ranks and minimal or zero season records (Gentzsch 0-1, Dougaz 0-0). No differentiating data exists to select a side or assign a probability of 50 or higher. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable as they are not supplied in the evidence package.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 17, 12:30 AM PDTClaude · Aziz Dougaz · 55.0%
The evidence package supplies almost no discriminating information: neither player has a current ATP rank, previous rank, or ranking points listed, and the season singles records are near-empty (Gentzsch 0-1, Dougaz 0-0, no titles for either). The only marginal signal is that Gentzsch's lone recorded ATP-level singles outing this season was a loss, while Dougaz has no recorded losses, which is a very weak tilt rather than a real edge. Surface-specific form, injury status, head-to-head history, travel/schedule context, and market odds are all explicitly unavailable in this package. I therefore stay close to a coin flip with only a slight lean toward Dougaz.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 17, 12:30 AM PDTGemini · No selection
Both players lack an ATP ranking. Tom Gentzsch has a 0-1 season record, while Aziz Dougaz has a 0-0 season record. This evidence is insufficient and unusable to make a meaningful forecast. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 17, 12:30 AM PDTGPT · Aziz Dougaz · 52.0%
Using only the supplied immutable evidence, both players lack a current rank, so the only differentiator is season singles record. Tom Gentzsch is listed at 0-1, while Aziz Dougaz is 0-0. That is a very thin edge for Dougaz because Gentzsch has one recorded season loss and no wins, while Dougaz has no recorded results at all. With no ranking, no deeper performance sample, and no other allowed evidence, the fairest estimate is a near-coin-flip with a slight lean to Dougaz. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable in the evidence package.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 17, 12:30 AM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- Current ESPN ranking and season singles record only
- Surface form unavailable
- Injuries unavailable
- Head-to-head unavailable
- Travel unavailable
- Market odds unavailable
- Surface-specific form unavailable
- Injury and fitness status unavailable
What to watch next
Wait for the official result. The locked forecast stays unchanged.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- First recorded forecast
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
8950319860f333b8e77b2ab4c837a51bd752dfc42e4b51dc066d285334e96eb0 - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
0d1473d977d5196c7496d253659f02a3f4c4d37b487f1c65944efaa786c6a563
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
This event has no eligible record in the new comparison cohort. Historical or late forecasts are not filled in after the event.
Inspect the methods and progress →Available source context
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