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Tennis · Oct 14, 4:20 AM PDT

Ann Li vs Aryna Sabalenka

86.0%Aryna Sabalenka
LOCKED Oct 14, 3:30 AM PDT

4/4 independent models select Aryna Sabalenka; all four oriented probabilities average 86%.

FORECASTAryna Sabalenka

Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.

RELIABILITY4/4 model reports

18 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.

MARKET VALUENot established

A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.

Why the models lean this way

These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.

  • Gemini: Sabalenka's world rank of 2 compared to Li's 31
  • Grok: Sabalenka rank 2 vs Li rank 31
  • Claude: Ranking gap: No. 2 vs No. 31 (7,550 vs 1,648 points)
  • GPT: Current rank strongly favors Aryna Sabalenka: No. 2 vs Ann Li at No. 31.
Read all four model reports

Gemini · Aryna Sabalenka · 88.0%

Aryna Sabalenka is ranked #2 in the world with 7550 ranking points and an impressive 47-10 season record, including 3 titles. Ann Li is ranked #31 with 1648 points and a near .500 record of 25-24. The massive gap in ranking points and season performance strongly favors Sabalenka.

google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 13, 5:02 PM PDT

Grok · Aryna Sabalenka · 82.0%

Aryna Sabalenka holds rank 2 with 7550 points and a 47-10 season record including 3 titles, while Ann Li is ranked 31 with 1648 points and a 25-24 record with 0 titles. The large gap in ranking and win percentage supports a high probability for Sabalenka. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable as they are not supplied in the evidence package.

xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 13, 5:02 PM PDT

Claude · Aryna Sabalenka · 88.0%

Sabalenka is ranked No. 2 with 7,550 ranking points, a 47-10 season record and 3 titles, versus Ann Li at No. 31 with 1,648 points and a barely-above-.500 25-24 record. The ranking-points gap (roughly 4.6x) and the win-rate gap (82% vs 51%) both point strongly toward the higher-ranked player. Typical WTA outcomes for a top-2 player against a player ranked around 30 fall in the 83-90% range; Sabalenka's elite season record supports the upper part of that band. Surface-specific form, injury status, head-to-head history, travel/scheduling, and market odds are not supplied in the evidence package, so this estimate rests only on current rank and season win-loss, and is capped short of extreme confidence for that reason.

anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 13, 5:02 PM PDT

GPT · Aryna Sabalenka · 86.0%

Using only the supplied evidence, Aryna Sabalenka is the clear favorite. She holds a much stronger current rank (No. 2 vs No. 31), far more ranking points (7550 vs 1648), a much better 2026 singles record (47-10 vs 25-24), and more titles this season (3 vs 0). Those indicators all point in the same direction and strongly favor Sabalenka in a match-winner forecast. Surface-specific form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable in the evidence package, so this estimate is based only on rank and season results and should not be treated as more precise than that evidence allows.

openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 13, 5:02 PM PDT

What remains uncertain

  • Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable.
  • Surface-specific form unavailable
  • Injuries unavailable
  • Head-to-head unavailable
  • Travel unavailable
  • Market odds unavailable
  • No head-to-head record supplied
  • No surface-specific (hard-court) form or recent-match results

What to watch next

Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.

Open the event and source context →

What changed before the lock

  1. Probability unchanged

    The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.

    Record hash27277d1ecb6f04d90096c3033d039e336f88501c8ed1dba5101f78a4897865b4
  2. First recorded forecast

    First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.

    Record hash27a87dba93b89d2bb12d00f2807d5b343203109276797f0d173f83496374cc54

Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.

The saved method comparison

All probabilities below refer to Aryna Sabalenka. Model inputs were fixed at Oct 14, 3:30 AM PDT. The market was observed at Oct 14, 3:25 AM PDT.

Current TORK86.0%
Simple average86.0%
Calibrated average89.4%
Kalshi85.0%
Comparison record

Saved Oct 14, 3:34 AM PDT. This is a research comparison; no method has been promoted.

903ede00f5576b9c6fbe5b64fef3143820e12d32785b8d08ea04684e8b66ea1a
Inspect the methods and progress →

Available source context

site.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗site.api.espn.com ↗

These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.

Recorded outcome: Ann Li (USA) bt (1) Aryna Sabalenka (BLR) 3-6 6-4 7-6 (7-5)

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