Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsCollege Football · Oct 10, 4:00 PM PDT YOUR RESEARCH TASK FORECASTNorth Dakota State Bison RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
UNLV Rebels vs North Dakota State Bison
57.4%North Dakota State Bison
LOCKED Oct 10, 3:31 PM PDT4/4 independent models select North Dakota State Bison; all four oriented probabilities average 57.38%.
Check the evidence
The most important gap and your next source check.
- Read the model reasons and reported limits.
- Inspect available source context; record missing sources.
- Identify what remains unverified and your next action.
18 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Gemini: Market line favors North Dakota State by 2.5 points
- Claude: Market line NDSU -2.5 implies roughly 57-60% win probability for the favorite
- GPT: North Dakota State has the better record at 5-0 versus UNLV at 3-2.
- Grok: NDSU 5-0 record vs UNLV 3-2
Read all four model reports
Gemini · North Dakota State Bison · 56.5%
North Dakota State is favored by 2.5 points on the road against UNLV. The undefeated Bison have strong market backing despite playing at UNLV's home venue, translating to an implied win probability of roughly 56.5%.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 10, 10:08 AM PDTClaude · North Dakota State Bison · 59.0%
The only direct comparative signal is the DraftKings line of NDSU -2.5, with the Bison favored despite playing at UNLV's home venue (Allegiant Stadium). A 2.5-point favorite historically converts to roughly a 57-60% win probability. Supporting evidence aligns: NDSU is unbeaten at 5-0 while UNLV is 3-2, and neither side carries a ranking. The small spread implies a near-coin-flip with a modest edge, so I estimate about 59% for North Dakota State and avoid overweighting the undefeated record, which may reflect a weaker schedule.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 10, 10:08 AM PDTGPT · North Dakota State Bison · 57.0%
Using only the supplied evidence, North Dakota State has the stronger pregame signal. The Bison are 5-0 versus UNLV at 3-2, and the only market signal provided makes North Dakota State a 2.5-point favorite. With no rankings available and no player/injury or efficiency data in the package, the market line is the strongest comparative indicator, while the records provide supporting but limited context. Because the spread is modest and the game is at UNLV's listed venue, this points to a competitive game rather than a clear mismatch. A reasonable evidence-bounded estimate is North Dakota State 57% to win.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 10, 10:08 AM PDTGrok · North Dakota State Bison · 57.0%
NDSU holds a 5-0 record versus UNLV's 3-2. The DraftKings line lists NDSU as a 2.5-point favorite on the road at Allegiant Stadium. No rankings are supplied. These structured facts indicate NDSU carries the higher win probability in this FBS matchup.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 10, 10:08 AM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- No advanced team efficiency metrics provided
- Missing injury reports and depth chart changes
- Lack of detailed matchup statistics or recent performance trends
- No injury, availability, or depth-chart information supplied
- No advanced efficiency, strength-of-schedule, or common-opponent data
- Opponent quality behind each record is unknown; NDSU's 5-0 may come against lesser competition
- Single market provider snapshot; no line movement or consensus available
- Unclear classification context (NDSU is traditionally FCS) that could affect comparability
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- Probability unchanged
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
780e8e1ed77763fcabc65ff8408c3afe0baced8510a23a86fd6bcb3584e6ae13 - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
12c775cbefac8f981bfa7450e19c24298506783623370f929696987f656fdfa7
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
This event has no eligible record in the new comparison cohort. Historical or late forecasts are not filled in after the event.
Inspect the methods and progress →Available source context
These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.
Recorded outcome: Final
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