Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsTennis · Oct 16, 11:25 PM PDT YOUR RESEARCH TASK FORECASTSara Sorribes Tormo RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established Current TORK59.3% Simple average59.3% Calibrated average60.1% Kalshi45.0% Inspect the methods and progress →
Maddison Inglis vs Sara Sorribes Tormo
59.3%Sara Sorribes Tormo
LOCKED Oct 16, 10:00 PM PDT4/4 independent models select Sara Sorribes Tormo; all four oriented probabilities average 59.25%.
Review official results
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- Read the original forecast before the outcome.
- Check the recorded official result and source context.
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20 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
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Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Grok: Sara Sorribes Tormo season record 27-18
- Gemini: Sara Sorribes Tormo has a season win-loss record of 27-18 (60.0% win rate).
- Claude: Sorribes Tormo 27-18 (60%) vs Inglis 15-14 (52%) season singles record
- GPT: Sara Sorribes Tormo has the better supplied season record at 27-18.
Read all four model reports
Grok · Sara Sorribes Tormo · 58.0%
Sara Sorribes Tormo holds a superior season singles record of 27 wins and 18 losses compared to Maddison Inglis's 15-14 mark. Inglis has an explicit WTA rank of 130 while Sorribes Tormo's rank is listed as null. No other differentiating data is supplied. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 16, 5:02 PM PDTGemini · Sara Sorribes Tormo · 62.0%
Sara Sorribes Tormo has a stronger season win-loss record (27-18, 60.0% win rate) compared to Maddison Inglis (15-14, 51.7% win rate). Although Sorribes Tormo's ranking is unavailable, her higher volume of wins and better win percentage suggest she is the favorite. The confidence is low due to the lack of ranking data for Sorribes Tormo and the absence of surface-specific form, head-to-head records, and market odds.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 16, 5:02 PM PDTClaude · Sara Sorribes Tormo · 59.0%
Only two evidence anchors exist: Inglis is ranked 130 (up from 140) with a 15-14 season record, while Sorribes Tormo has no supplied ranking but a stronger 27-18 record (60% win rate vs 52%). The larger match volume with a better win percentage is a modest indicator of superior current level, and Sorribes Tormo's missing ranking most plausibly reflects an inactive/protected status rather than poor results given her win total. Both are in a qualifying first round, implying roughly comparable standing, so the edge is small. Surface-specific form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are explicitly unavailable in this evidence package, which caps confidence.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 16, 5:02 PM PDTGPT · Sara Sorribes Tormo · 58.0%
Using only the supplied evidence, Sara Sorribes Tormo has the stronger season-level results profile: 27 singles wins and 18 losses versus Maddison Inglis at 15 wins and 14 losses. Inglis does have an explicit current rank of No. 130, improved from No. 140, while Sorribes Tormo’s current rank is unavailable in the package, so ranking support exists only for Inglis. Balancing those facts, the larger season sample and notably higher win total for Sorribes Tormo make her the slight favorite, but the missing rank for Sorribes Tormo prevents a stronger projection. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable in the evidence package.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 16, 5:02 PM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- Surface form unavailable
- Injuries unavailable
- Head-to-head unavailable
- Travel unavailable
- Market odds unavailable
- No surface or venue specifics usable
- Sara Sorribes Tormo's current ranking is unavailable.
- Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable.
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- First recorded forecast
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
518b11b71f197a140174f1366c8fc55c92f0a191c466c1dbb7d92b697288c280 - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
20aa1d245802aec9cf18b5cad4c1e809525f652dead7c5fadd90cd0329dd0046
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
All probabilities below refer to Sara Sorribes Tormo. Model inputs were fixed at Oct 16, 10:00 PM PDT. The market was observed at Oct 16, 9:55 PM PDT.
Comparison record
Saved Oct 16, 10:00 PM PDT. This is a research comparison; no method has been promoted.
a09cf9132b2117958aa900a97b161cf2722e71a397f6ea8cd5c47eab8a009172Available source context
site.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗
These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.
Recorded outcome: Maddison Inglis (AUS) bt Sara Sorribes Tormo (ESP) 7-5 6-4
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