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Tennis · Oct 16, 8:05 PM PDT

Anastasia Zakharova vs Yuliia Starodubtseva

65.8%Yuliia Starodubtseva
LOCKED Oct 16, 7:30 PM PDT

4/4 independent models select Yuliia Starodubtseva; all four oriented probabilities average 65.75%.

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A documented difference, its timing, and limits.

  1. Confirm every probability refers to the same outcome.
  2. Check the forecast lock and market observation times.
  3. Record the difference and what it does not establish.
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FORECASTYuliia Starodubtseva

Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.

RELIABILITY4/4 model reports

19 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.

MARKET VALUENot established

A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.

Why the models lean this way

These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.

  • Gemini: Yuliia Starodubtseva is ranked No. 44 with 1165 ranking points.
  • Grok: Starodubtseva rank 44 and 1165 points vs Zakharova rank 111 and 704 points
  • Claude: Starodubtseva ranked No. 44 vs Zakharova No. 111 (67-place gap)
  • GPT: Starodubtseva holds the much higher current rank: 44 vs 111.
Read all four model reports

Gemini · Yuliia Starodubtseva · 68.0%

Yuliia Starodubtseva holds a significant ranking advantage over Anastasia Zakharova, sitting at world No. 44 compared to Zakharova's No. 111. With 1165 ranking points to Zakharova's 704, Starodubtseva has demonstrated a higher level of performance over the past year, making her the favorite despite the lack of her specific season win-loss record.

google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 16, 5:00 PM PDT

Grok · Yuliia Starodubtseva · 68.0%

Yuliia Starodubtseva holds a substantially superior current rank (44 vs 111) and ranking points (1165 vs 704). Zakharova's season record of 34-28 is supplied but Starodubtseva's is null. No other performance data exists. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable.

xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 16, 5:00 PM PDT

Claude · Yuliia Starodubtseva · 63.0%

Only ranking data separates these players. Starodubtseva sits at No. 44 with 1165 ranking points versus Zakharova at No. 111 with 704 points, a gap of roughly 67 places that historically translates to about a 60-65% win probability for the higher-ranked player in WTA matches. Both players have essentially static rankings week-over-week (44 from 45; 111 from 110), so neither shows strong recent trajectory signal. Zakharova's supplied 34-28 season record is respectable but no comparable record is provided for Starodubtseva, limiting form comparison. Surface-specific form, injuries, head-to-head history, travel/fatigue, and market odds are all unavailable in the evidence package. The qualifying-round context for a top-50 player is unexplained and adds uncertainty, so I keep the estimate conservative.

anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 16, 5:00 PM PDT

GPT · Yuliia Starodubtseva · 64.0%

Using only the supplied evidence, Yuliia Starodubtseva is the stronger side because her current WTA rank (44) is substantially better than Anastasia Zakharova’s rank (111). That ranking gap is the clearest and most reliable signal in the package. Zakharova’s 34-28 season record is useful for showing she has been active and moderately successful, but Starodubtseva’s season win-loss record is unavailable, so the comparison cannot be completed on that dimension. With rank as the main common metric, Starodubtseva should be favored, but not overwhelmingly because this is a qualifying-round match and several important factors are unavailable. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable in the evidence package.

openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 16, 5:00 PM PDT

What remains uncertain

  • Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable.
  • Yuliia Starodubtseva's season win-loss record is not supplied.
  • Surface form unavailable
  • Injuries unavailable
  • Head-to-head unavailable
  • Travel unavailable
  • Market odds unavailable
  • No head-to-head history supplied

What to watch next

Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.

Open the event and source context →

What changed before the lock

  1. 1.8 percentage points lower for Yuliia Starodubtseva

    The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.

    Record hashd6fc6298119b78f7a097490c5df4c2d8fa6a7c1984d9d5de475980aacfbc45fa
  2. First recorded forecast

    First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.

    Record hash41aff9b924f38eef63820280b6827f10b324d55f283c1a937213d0984a90bbe4

Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.

The saved method comparison

All probabilities below refer to Yuliia Starodubtseva. Model inputs were fixed at Oct 16, 7:30 PM PDT. The market was observed at Oct 16, 7:25 PM PDT.

Current TORK65.8%
Simple average65.8%
Calibrated average67.2%
Kalshi58.0%
Comparison record

Saved Oct 16, 7:30 PM PDT. This is a research comparison; no method has been promoted.

300c546c7d72fffa14c6db02cec987cc6ee66b4b8f5639c33087917964739f87
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Available source context

site.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗

These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.

Recorded outcome: Anastasia Zakharova (RUS) bt Yuliia Starodubtseva (UKR) 6-1 7-5

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