Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsTennis · Oct 16, 7:40 PM PDT YOUR RESEARCH TASK FORECASTMaya Joint RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established Current TORK77.0% Simple average77.0% Calibrated average79.5% Kalshi77.0% Inspect the methods and progress →
Kyoka Okamura vs Maya Joint
77.0%Maya Joint
LOCKED Oct 16, 7:00 PM PDT4/4 independent models select Maya Joint; all four oriented probabilities average 77%.
Review official results
One lesson to investigate in future events.
- Read the original forecast before the outcome.
- Check the recorded official result and source context.
- Record a lesson without treating one result as proof.
19 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Grok: Maya Joint WTA rank 92 and 824 points
- Claude: Joint explicitly ranked No. 92 with 824 ranking points
- Gemini: Maya Joint is ranked 92nd in the world.
- GPT: Maya Joint has the only explicit current rank supplied: WTA No. 92.
Read all four model reports
Grok · Maya Joint · 82.0%
Maya Joint is ranked 92 with 824 ranking points. Kyoka Okamura has no rank listed and a 27-24 singles record. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 16, 5:02 PM PDTClaude · Maya Joint · 78.0%
Maya Joint carries an explicit WTA ranking of No. 92 with 824 ranking points, placing her firmly in the main-draw tier of the tour. Kyoka Okamura has no listed ranking at all in the supplied data, with only a modest 27-24 season singles record and no titles, which is consistent with a lower-tier/ITF-level profile. Ranking gaps of this magnitude in WTA qualifying typically translate to roughly a 75-80% win rate for the ranked player. Offsetting factors: Joint's ranking has slipped from 75 to 92, suggesting some recent negative form, and Okamura is a home player in Osaka, which can matter in Japanese tournaments. Surface-specific form, injury status, head-to-head history, travel/fatigue, and market odds are all unavailable in this evidence package, so the estimate rests almost entirely on ranking versus an unranked opponent.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 16, 5:00 PM PDTGemini · Maya Joint · 75.0%
Maya Joint holds a strong top-100 ranking (92), indicating consistent performance at the tour level. Kyoka Okamura lacks a provided ranking and has a modest 27-24 season record, suggesting she primarily competes at lower tiers. Although Okamura has a home-country advantage in Japan, Joint's significant ranking advantage makes her the clear favorite.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 16, 5:00 PM PDTGPT · Maya Joint · 73.0%
Maya Joint is the stronger side on the supplied immutable evidence because she has an explicit current WTA rank of No. 92, while Kyoka Okamura has no current rank supplied and is represented only by a 27-24 season singles record. A top-100 ranking is a meaningful indicator of higher overall level in a WTA qualifying match, so Joint should be favored. Okamura’s 27 wins show she is active and competitive, which prevents an extreme estimate, but the evidence package still points clearly toward Joint. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable here, so the estimate is based only on current ranking and the available season record.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 16, 5:00 PM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- No surface-specific form supplied
- No head-to-head data supplied
- No injury or travel details supplied
- No market odds supplied
- Surface-specific form not supplied
- Injury or fitness status not supplied
- Head-to-head record not supplied
- Travel and scheduling/fatigue data not supplied
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- 1.3 percentage points higher for Maya Joint
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
cc9c9a109d4b189fd77634cdd381634a98e1078b79a83504c5716e95b8aaba44 - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
d1c91210a79941a93ab5a6f9f10841d270b21c4a61a0dc4af32b266f6f4efa0e
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
All probabilities below refer to Maya Joint. Model inputs were fixed at Oct 16, 7:00 PM PDT. The market was observed at Oct 16, 6:55 PM PDT.
Comparison record
Saved Oct 16, 7:00 PM PDT. This is a research comparison; no method has been promoted.
89332607dca60158f47cea80c5fe62aab4ae109607aac149834901d6585bd042Available source context
site.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗
These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.
Recorded outcome: Maya Joint (AUS) bt Kyoka Okamura (JPN) 6-4 6-2
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