Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsTennis · Oct 16, 3:05 AM PDT YOUR RESEARCH TASK FORECASTDalma Galfi RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
Francesca Jones vs Dalma Galfi
58.0%Dalma Galfi
LOCKED Oct 16, 2:30 AM PDT3/4 independent models select Dalma Galfi; all four oriented probabilities average 58%.
Review official results
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- Read the original forecast before the outcome.
- Check the recorded official result and source context.
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17 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Grok: Galfi current rank 7 vs Jones rank 104
- Claude: Jones explicit rank 104 with 726 ranking points, previous rank 105 (stable)
- GPT: Francesca Jones has the much better supplied current rank: 104 vs 7 for Dalma Galfi.
- Gemini: Dalma Galfi is ranked 7th in the world.
Read all four model reports
Grok · Dalma Galfi · 78.0%
Dalma Galfi holds a substantially superior current rank of 7 compared to Francesca Jones at 104, supported by Galfi's supplied 20-26 season singles record. Jones lacks any win-loss data. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable per evidence_scope. This rank differential forms the sole basis for the estimate within supplied facts.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 15, 5:01 PM PDTClaude · Dalma Galfi · 56.0%
The only usable discriminators are the supplied rank fields and one partial season record. Jones is listed at No. 104 (726 points, up one spot from 105) with no win-loss data; Galfi is listed at No. 7 with no points or previous rank but a sub-.500 season record of 20-26. The 'rank 7' value is internally inconsistent with a 20-26 record and with the absence of ranking points, so it is most plausibly a non-WTA-ranking artifact (e.g., entry/seed ordering) rather than a top-10 world ranking; I therefore discount it heavily rather than treating Galfi as a heavy favorite. Netting a modest edge to Galfi on the nominal ranking signal against her weak record and Jones's stable 104 ranking yields only a slight lean, close to a coin flip at this WTA-125-level quarterfinal. Surface-specific form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are not available in the evidence package.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 15, 5:01 PM PDTGPT · Francesca Jones · 77.0%
Using only the supplied evidence, Francesca Jones is the stronger side because she has the clearly superior current ranking: No. 104 versus No. 7 for Dalma Galfi. Ranking is the most comparable and broadly informative fact available here. Galfi’s supplied 2026 season record is 20-26, which is below .500 and is a negative indicator, but Jones’s season win-loss record is not supplied, so the form comparison is incomplete. Because the evidence package explicitly limits us to current ranking and season singles record only, and because surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable, this estimate leans heavily on ranking while modestly discounting certainty due to the missing Jones record and the unusual possibility that the listed rank gap may not reflect full current strength. On balance, Jones should be favored but with low confidence due to the sparse and im
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 15, 5:01 PM PDTGemini · Dalma Galfi · 75.0%
Dalma Galfi holds a significantly higher ranking (7) compared to Francesca Jones (104). Although Galfi has a losing season record (20-26), her elite ranking suggests she competes at a much higher tier and generally faces tougher opposition. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 15, 5:01 PM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- Surface-specific form unavailable
- Injuries unavailable
- Head-to-head unavailable
- Travel unavailable
- Market odds unavailable
- Injury and fitness status unavailable
- Head-to-head record unavailable
- Travel/scheduling and recent match load unavailable
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- 0.8 percentage points lower for Dalma Galfi
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
517a28333bc56bd3e938137a49daac3e4cca7b3e3f8cd7297b9f91eaea11ccc3 - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
38fcf24745732e54a63fd0e8d5894c2b1af3aa51c6f992fd74c7ad0fbe14d4ff
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
This event has no eligible record in the new comparison cohort. Historical or late forecasts are not filled in after the event.
Inspect the methods and progress →Available source context
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These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.
Recorded outcome: (7) Dalma Galfi (HUN) bt (2) Francesca Jones (GBR) 6-2 6-4
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