Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsTennis · Oct 14, 12:00 AM PDT FORECASTDaria Snigur RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established Current TORK68.0% Simple average68.0% Calibrated average69.7% Kalshi63.0% Inspect the methods and progress →
Daria Snigur vs Janice Tjen
68.0%Daria Snigur
LOCKED Oct 13, 10:30 PM PDT4/4 independent models select Daria Snigur; all four oriented probabilities average 68%.
22 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Grok: Snigur current rank 42 ahead of Tjen rank 47
- Gemini: Daria Snigur's strong season record of 44 wins and 16 losses
- Claude: Snigur ranked 42 vs Tjen 47; ranking points 1254 vs 1125 (small edge Snigur)
- GPT: Snigur has the better current rank: 42 vs 47.
Read all four model reports
Grok · Daria Snigur · 58.0%
Daria Snigur holds the superior current rank (42 vs 47) and ranking points (1254 vs 1125) along with a markedly stronger season singles record (44-16 vs 14-26). These supplied facts indicate Snigur as the stronger player on paper. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable as they are not supplied in the evidence package.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 13, 5:01 PM PDTGemini · Daria Snigur · 80.0%
Daria Snigur holds a slightly higher ranking than Janice Tjen, but the most significant factor is their season win-loss records. Snigur has an impressive 44-16 record, while Tjen has struggled with a 14-26 record. This stark contrast in current season form makes Snigur the clear favorite.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 13, 5:01 PM PDTClaude · Daria Snigur · 67.0%
Both players sit close in the rankings (Snigur No. 42 / 1254 points vs Tjen No. 47 / 1125 points), and both are trending slightly upward week-over-week, so ranking alone implies a near coin-flip with a small edge to Snigur. The separating factor in the supplied facts is the season singles record: Snigur is 44-16 (.733) while Tjen is 14-26 (.350). That large gap in win rate, even allowing for differences in draw quality and match volume, supports a moderate edge for Snigur rather than a toss-up. Neither player has a title this season. Surface-specific form (hard court in Wuhan), injury/fitness status, head-to-head history, travel/scheduling load, and market odds are all unavailable in this evidence package, which caps confidence and keeps the estimate away from extremes.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 13, 5:01 PM PDTGPT · Daria Snigur · 67.0%
Using only the supplied evidence, Daria Snigur has the stronger profile. She is ranked slightly higher than Janice Tjen (42 vs 47), but the bigger separator is the season record: Snigur is 44-16, while Tjen is 14-26. That indicates substantially better 2026 match performance for Snigur. Both players have improved slightly from their previous rankings, and neither has a supplied title edge. Based on rank plus a much stronger win-loss record, Snigur should be favored, though not overwhelmingly because the evidence package does not include surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, or market odds.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 13, 5:01 PM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- Surface-specific form unavailable
- Injuries unavailable
- Head-to-head unavailable
- Travel unavailable
- Market odds unavailable
- Evidence limited to current rank and season win-loss only
- Surface-specific form is not supplied
- Injuries are not supplied
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- 0.3 percentage points lower for Daria Snigur
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
dd17a0f6cca73038016ac967819424822eeb087fd6dcddc5fdafd3e0e3b70f8a - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
f008fb8c309b8c63dffd3434f6eed206ad24b9051074a420e8023eeec561cb6e
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
All probabilities below refer to Daria Snigur. Model inputs were fixed at Oct 13, 10:30 PM PDT. The market was observed at Oct 13, 10:25 PM PDT.
Comparison record
Saved Oct 13, 10:34 PM PDT. This is a research comparison; no method has been promoted.
8f943d36c470c7998771c31f9593711bcbb18090c0e17fe471043d69d220a1f0Available source context
site.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗site.api.espn.com ↗
These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.
Recorded outcome: Janice Tjen (INA) bt Daria Snigur (UKR) 7-5 6-3
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