Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsTennis · Oct 13, 4:15 AM PDT FORECASTAlina Charaeva RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
Alina Charaeva vs Martyna Kubka
61.3%Alina Charaeva
LOCKED Oct 13, 3:00 AM PDT4/4 independent models select Alina Charaeva; all four oriented probabilities average 61.25%.
20 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Grok: Charaeva explicit rank 98 vs Kubka unranked
- Claude: Charaeva explicitly ranked No. 98 with 759 points; Kubka has no supplied ranking
- Gemini: Charaeva's top-100 ranking (98)
- GPT: Alina Charaeva has an explicit current WTA rank of 98 with 759 ranking points.
Read all four model reports
Grok · Alina Charaeva · 55.0%
Charaeva holds an explicit WTA rank of 98 with 759 ranking points while Kubka has none listed, indicating Charaeva is the higher-ranked player. Charaeva's season record is 36-24 and Kubka's is 43-18. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable as they are not supplied in the evidence package. The ranking differential is used as the primary tie-breaker given the conflicting win-loss percentages.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 12, 9:30 PM PDTClaude · Alina Charaeva · 63.0%
Charaeva is the only player with an explicit ranking (No. 98, improved from 118, 759 points), which at a WTA 125-level event in Rovereto implies she is the higher-tier player and likely a seed. Kubka has no supplied ranking at all, and her superior raw record (43-18, .705 vs Charaeva's 36-24, .600) is most plausibly accumulated at lower-level events where win rates are inflated, so it does not offset a clear ranking gap. That said, Kubka's volume of wins signals genuine match-sharpness and a credible upset path, so the edge is moderate rather than large. Surface-specific form, injury/fitness status, head-to-head history, travel and scheduling load, and market odds are all unavailable in this evidence package, which caps confidence.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 12, 9:30 PM PDTGemini · Alina Charaeva · 72.0%
Alina Charaeva holds a solid top-100 ranking at 98, while Martyna Kubka is currently unranked. Although Kubka has a strong 43-18 season record, it was likely achieved against lower-tier competition compared to Charaeva's 36-24 record on the main tour. The significant ranking disparity gives Charaeva a clear advantage.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 12, 9:30 PM PDTGPT · Alina Charaeva · 55.0%
Using only the supplied evidence, this is a close match. Alina Charaeva has the clearer demonstrated level from the explicit current ranking: No. 98 with 759 ranking points, and she has improved from previous rank 118. Martyna Kubka has the stronger raw 2026 win-loss record at 43-18 versus Charaeva’s 36-24, but Kubka’s current rank and ranking points are unavailable in the package, which limits direct comparison of her established tour level. Given Charaeva’s top-100 ranking edge but Kubka’s better season record, the best evidence-bounded estimate is a narrow lean to Charaeva. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable here and cannot be incorporated.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 12, 9:30 PM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- Surface form unavailable
- Injuries unavailable
- Head-to-head unavailable
- Travel unavailable
- Market odds unavailable
- Only current rank and season singles record supplied
- No surface-specific (clay/hard/indoor) form supplied
- No injury, withdrawal, or fitness information
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- 5.5 percentage points higher for Alina Charaeva
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
e81be479cd95604cc5fb5c78d89680955e66a3445ba7a9cdaf2ed1e55e28079a - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
39a5de6dedf6de8eccf9ec67bc7403eae1f0ebc53f13ef42247ee8a2db03085a
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
This event has no eligible record in the new comparison cohort. Historical or late forecasts are not filled in after the event.
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Recorded outcome: Martyna Kubka (POL) bt (4) Alina Charaeva (ARM) 6-1 6-2
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