Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsMMA · Oct 31, 2:00 PM PDT FORECASTRodrigo Sezinando RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
Rodrigo Sezinando vs Theodor Berggren
56.9%Rodrigo Sezinando
NOT LOCKEDAll four probabilities, converted to the same fighter, average 56.88% for Rodrigo Sezinando. 4/4 models select this fighter.
17 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Claude: Sezinando 9-2 with 5 first-round finishes vs Berggren 8-4 with 3 losses in last 5
- Gemini: Sezinando's offensive grappling (3.37 takedowns per 15 minutes) provides a secondary path to victory.
- GPT: Sezinando has meaningful grappling activity in the supplied stats: 3.37 takedowns per 15 minutes, which could be important against Berggren's profile with no recorded takedown game
- Grok: Sezinando 9-2 record and five first-round finishes
Read all four model reports
Claude · Rodrigo Sezinando · 55.0%
Sezinando has the cleaner record (9-2 with five first-round finishes) and a functional takedown game plus 67 percent takedown defense, while Berggren is 8-4 with losses by decision and by arm-triangle choke. Both were stopped by Daniil Donchenko, so the edge is slim.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 16, 5:07 PM PDTGemini · Rodrigo Sezinando · 63.5%
Rodrigo Sezinando and Theodor Berggren both enter this matchup having recently suffered TKO losses to the same opponent, Daniil Donchenko. However, Sezinando presents a more well-rounded statistical profile, notably averaging 3.37 takedowns per 15 minutes, whereas Berggren has shown no offensive grappling in his tracked bouts. Furthermore, Sezinando is listed at 185 lbs compared to Berggren's 170 lbs, suggesting a potential size and strength advantage depending on the contracted weight class. Both fighters exhibit alarmingly high striking absorption rates (over 8.5 SApM), which points to a high-variance, finish-heavy environment, but Sezinando's ability to mix in takedowns and his slightly better overall record (9-2 vs 8-4) give him the edge. The bout was added roughly 15 days before the event, adding an element of short-notice unpredictability.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 16, 5:07 PM PDTGPT · Rodrigo Sezinando · 56.0%
Sezinando gets a slight pre-event edge based on the cleaner grappling profile and the apparent size/weight context in the supplied profiles. His UFC stats show 3.37 takedowns per 15 minutes and 67% takedown defense, while Berggren has no recorded takedown offense and no listed takedown defense numbers. On the feet, neither man looks defensively reliable: Sezinando absorbs 8.76 significant strikes per minute with 43% defense, and Berggren absorbs an even higher 10.78 with 34% defense. Berggren does land more volume, but both recent records and finishing histories suggest a volatile fight where defensive liabilities matter. Sezinando's path to win looks somewhat broader because he has both knockout and submission wins and at least some demonstrated wrestling metrics, whereas Berggren's supplied profile is much more striking-dependent. The probability stays close to the middle because theē
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 16, 5:07 PM PDTGrok · Rodrigo Sezinando · 53.0%
Both fighters enter with comparable professional records and share a recent loss to Daniil Donchenko. Sezinando holds a 9-2 mark versus Berggren's 8-4, shows measurable takedown attempts, and has finished five of his nine wins inside the first round. Berggren lands strikes at a higher rate but posts weaker striking defense and zero recorded grappling volume. The bout was added roughly fifteen days prior with no further verified adjustments. Sparse verified metrics and absence of direct comparative data keep the edge modest.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 16, 5:07 PM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- No odds, no reach, stance, or age for Sezinando; UFC striking stats drawn from tiny samples
- Listed weights differ (185 vs 170) and division is only given as MMA, so the contracted weight class is unclear
- Bout added roughly 15 days out; Sezinando has a long layoff since Sep 2025 while Berggren fought Jun 2026, with no verified camp or injury details
- The extreme striking absorption rates are likely skewed by very small sample sizes in UFC-tracked bouts, potentially just their respective losses to Donchenko.
- Missing physical metrics, including reach for both fighters and height for Sezinando.
- Short-notice bout addition limits knowledge of full camp preparation and exact weight class dynamics.
- Only two verified fighter profiles are supplied; evidence is relatively sparse
- No licensed pre-event odds are connected, so there is no market-based cross-check
What to watch next
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- First recorded forecast
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Record hash
73d3db9c3aee18ca9f409ea7717fe36f4676033f76e675cf78bff3977d867931
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