Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsTennis · Oct 16, 12:35 AM PDT YOUR RESEARCH TASK FORECASTMaja Chwalinska RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established Current TORK61.3% Simple average61.3% Calibrated average62.3% Kalshi46.0% Inspect the methods and progress →
Maria Sakkari vs Maja Chwalinska
61.3%Maja Chwalinska
LOCKED Oct 15, 11:00 PM PDT4/4 independent models select Maja Chwalinska; all four oriented probabilities average 61.25%.
Review official results
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- Read the original forecast before the outcome.
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22 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Grok: Chwalinska current rank 22 better than Sakkari rank 35
- Claude: Chwalinska ranked 22 vs Sakkari 35 (2,043 vs 1,492 points)
- Gemini: Maja Chwalinska has a higher WTA ranking (22) than Maria Sakkari (35).
- GPT: Chwalinska is ranked higher: No. 22 vs Sakkari No. 35.
Read all four model reports
Grok · Maja Chwalinska · 58.0%
Maja Chwalinska holds the superior current rank (22 vs 35), higher ranking points (2043 vs 1492), and stronger season singles record (33-17 vs 23-20). These supplied facts indicate Chwalinska as the stronger player on paper. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable as they are not supplied in the evidence package.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 15, 9:52 PM PDTClaude · Maja Chwalinska · 62.0%
Only two evidence dimensions are supplied: current ranking and season singles win-loss. Chwalinska is ranked No. 22 with 2,043 points and a 33-17 record (66% win rate), while Sakkari is No. 35 with 1,492 points and a 23-20 record (53%). Both are trending slightly down in ranking and neither has a title this season, so the differentiator is a modest but consistent edge in ranking tier and match-win rate. A 13-place ranking gap plus a ~13-point win-rate gap typically maps to roughly a 60-65% favorite in a WTA quarterfinal. Surface-specific form, injury status, head-to-head history, travel/scheduling load, and market odds are all unavailable, which caps confidence and keeps the estimate close to the baseline implied by rank alone.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 15, 9:52 PM PDTGemini · Maja Chwalinska · 65.0%
Maja Chwalinska holds a higher ranking (22 compared to 35) and a significantly better season win-loss record (33-17, a 66% win rate, versus Sakkari's 23-20, a 53.5% win rate). Based on these metrics, Chwalinska is the statistical favorite, though the absence of surface-specific data and head-to-head records limits the precision of the forecast.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 15, 9:52 PM PDTGPT · Maja Chwalinska · 60.0%
Using only the supplied immutable evidence, Maja Chwalinska has the stronger current profile: a better WTA rank (22 vs 35), more ranking points (2043 vs 1492), and a better 2026 singles record (33-17 vs 23-20). Both players have zero singles titles in the supplied season data, so that does not separate them. Because the available evidence is limited to current ranking and season win-loss record, the forecast should be modest rather than extreme, but those two indicators both point toward Chwalinska as the more likely winner.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 15, 9:52 PM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- Surface-specific form not supplied
- Injuries not supplied
- Head-to-head not supplied
- Travel factors not supplied
- Market odds not supplied
- No surface-specific form or recent-match results supplied
- No injury, fatigue, or withdrawal information available
- No head-to-head record provided
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- 0.8 percentage points lower for Maja Chwalinska
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
36c71afcb32d0793aa521c197257e1be874633ce90fe711520b0726e71334483 - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
7ce97e36bab564f144312c727c6b0b3bd9d488c6fcc946d1edcc12ee47d58bde
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
All probabilities below refer to Maja Chwalinska. Model inputs were fixed at Oct 15, 11:00 PM PDT. The market was observed at Oct 15, 10:55 PM PDT.
Comparison record
Saved Oct 15, 11:00 PM PDT. This is a research comparison; no method has been promoted.
f893df9e3d3561e8a9957569a9317eeb131d967e3c2871b71e069a761c434061Available source context
site.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗site.api.espn.com ↗
These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.
Recorded outcome: (16) Maja Chwalinska (POL) bt Maria Sakkari (GRE) 6-0 3-6 7-5
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