Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsNFL · Oct 4, 1:25 PM PDT YOUR RESEARCH TASK FORECASTKansas City Chiefs RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established Current TORK64.5% Simple average64.5% Calibrated average65.9% Kalshi68.0% Inspect the methods and progress →
Kansas City Chiefs vs Las Vegas Raiders
64.5%Kansas City Chiefs
LOCKED Oct 4, 12:55 PM PDT4/4 independent models select Kansas City Chiefs; all four oriented probabilities average 64.5%.
Check the evidence
The most important gap and your next source check.
- Read the model reasons and reported limits.
- Inspect available source context; record missing sources.
- Identify what remains unverified and your next action.
17 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Claude: DraftKings line KC -4.5, a road favorite of roughly 4.5 points implying about 68-70% win probability
- Gemini: Kansas City is a 4.5-point road favorite.
- Grok: Both teams 3-0 entering Week 4
- GPT: Both Kansas City and Las Vegas are 3-0 entering the game.
Read all four model reports
Claude · Kansas City Chiefs · 69.0%
Both teams enter 3-0, so records provide no separation, and the market is the decisive evidence. DraftKings lists Kansas City -4.5 on the road at Allegiant Stadium, which is a meaningful road-favorite price: a 4.5-point spread typically converts to roughly a 68-70% win probability for the favorite, and being favored away implies an even larger neutral-field edge. The total of 47.5 is near league average, suggesting no extreme variance environment that would compress the favorite's edge. With no injury or quarterback-status data supplied for either side and no moneyline to cross-check, I anchor directly on the spread and hold at about 69% for Kansas City.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Sep 29, 8:31 AM PDTGemini · Kansas City Chiefs · 66.0%
The Kansas City Chiefs are favored by 4.5 points on the road against the Las Vegas Raiders. Although both teams enter the game with perfect 3-0 records, the betting market clearly respects the Chiefs more, assigning them a spread that translates to roughly a 66% implied win probability.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Sep 29, 8:31 AM PDTGrok · Kansas City Chiefs · 62.0%
Both teams enter at 3-0, but the DraftKings market line lists KC as a 4.5-point road favorite. This spread implies the Chiefs are the stronger side despite identical records and a neutral venue. No injury data or other comparative metrics are supplied, so the market line is the primary differentiator. Probability is calibrated modestly above 50 to reflect the spread without over-extrapolating from limited facts.
xai/grok-4.3 · Sep 29, 8:31 AM PDTGPT · Kansas City Chiefs · 61.0%
The best immutable evidence favors Kansas City. Both teams are 3-0, so win-loss record alone does not separate them. The strongest comparative signal in the package is the DraftKings market line of Chiefs -4.5 on the road. A road favorite of more than a field goal generally implies the away team is materially stronger on a neutral assessment, even after accounting for Las Vegas having home field. With matching records and no injury information indicating an offset, Kansas City should be treated as the more likely winner, though not overwhelmingly so because both teams are undefeated and the package lacks deeper team-efficiency, quarterback, or roster context.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Sep 29, 8:31 AM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- Injury lists are empty for both teams; availability reports may not have published yet
- No moneyline prices supplied, so the spread is the only market anchor with no vig-free cross-check
- No quarterback or depth-chart confirmation for either side
- Weather field is null, though the game is in a domed stadium
- No advanced efficiency, points-scored/allowed, or strength-of-schedule data despite both teams being 3-0
- No direct moneyline odds are provided, so the win probability is derived from the point spread.
- Injury reports are currently empty, which could change significantly closer to kickoff.
- Early season (Week 4) records may not fully reflect true team strength.
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- Probability unchanged
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
fcdb39901d7e31ff90178fc92e2c24a7aa926a690769e842ff1c0c9bb3a19767 - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
9eecd36607bd4824acd61e8c56cb4fc0f6ce162e125db7d71ff73f85908b75ae
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
All probabilities below refer to Kansas City Chiefs. Model inputs were fixed at Oct 4, 12:55 PM PDT. The market was observed at Oct 4, 12:50 PM PDT.
Comparison record
Saved Oct 4, 12:59 PM PDT. This is a research comparison; no method has been promoted.
ec7f60c459074a1ddb3b475c86c548dc38563e455f7da523a7c187a28089d2d3Available source context
These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.
Recorded outcome: Kansas City Chiefs 30, Las Vegas Raiders 27
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