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Tennis · Oct 9, 9:10 PM PDT

Nuno Borges vs Jiri Lehecka

71.8%Jiri Lehecka
LOCKED Oct 9, 8:30 PM PDT

4/4 independent models select Jiri Lehecka; all four oriented probabilities average 71.75%.

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FORECASTJiri Lehecka

Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.

RELIABILITY4/4 model reports

22 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.

MARKET VALUENot established

A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.

Why the models lean this way

These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.

  • Grok: Lehecka current rank 16 vs Borges rank 51
  • Claude: Ranking gap: Lehecka 16 vs Borges 51
  • Gemini: Jiri Lehecka is ranked 16th with 2440 points.
  • GPT: Current ATP rank favors Jiri Lehecka: 16 vs 51
Read all four model reports

Grok · Jiri Lehecka · 72.0%

Jiri Lehecka holds the superior current rank (16 vs 51), substantially higher ranking points (2440 vs 1070), and a stronger season singles record (30-17 vs 26-24). These supplied facts indicate Lehecka as the clear favorite. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable as they are not supplied in the evidence package.

xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 9, 5:00 PM PDT

Claude · Jiri Lehecka · 71.0%

Lehecka holds a clear and consistent edge across every supplied metric: ranked 16 versus 51, more than double the ranking points (2440 vs 1070), and a far stronger season record (30-17, .638 vs 26-24, .520). His ranking trend is also improving (23 to 16) while Borges has slipped (49 to 51). A roughly 35-place ranking gap at this level of the tour typically translates to about a 70% win expectation for the higher-ranked player, with some discount because Borges is a solid tour-level performer capable of upsets and because Masters 1000 best-of-three formats add variance. Surface-specific form, injury status, head-to-head history, travel/fatigue, and market odds are not available in this evidence package, so the estimate rests solely on ranking and season win-loss data.

anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 9, 5:00 PM PDT

Gemini · Jiri Lehecka · 72.0%

Jiri Lehecka holds a significant ranking advantage at No. 16 compared to Nuno Borges at No. 51, possessing more than double the ranking points (2440 to 1070). Furthermore, Lehecka has a stronger season win-loss record of 30-17 (63.8% win rate) compared to Borges's 26-24 (52.0% win rate).

google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 9, 5:00 PM PDT

GPT · Jiri Lehecka · 72.0%

Using only the supplied immutable evidence, Jiri Lehecka has the materially stronger profile: a much better current ATP rank (16 vs 51), more ranking points (2440 vs 1070), a better season win-loss record (30-17 vs 26-24), and a positive recent ranking move (previously 23, now 16) versus Borges slipping slightly (49 to 51). Those facts support Lehecka as a clear but not overwhelming favorite in a best-evidence forecast. Surface-specific form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable, so the estimate is based only on rank and overall 2026 singles results.

openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 9, 5:00 PM PDT

What remains uncertain

  • Surface-specific form unavailable
  • Injuries unavailable
  • Head-to-head unavailable
  • Travel unavailable
  • Market odds unavailable
  • No head-to-head record supplied
  • No surface-specific (hard court) form or splits
  • No injury or fitness information

What to watch next

Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.

Open the event and source context →

What changed before the lock

  1. 2.5 percentage points higher for Jiri Lehecka

    The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.

    Record hashdb070467093ef568c39187c30d5ef9ce69341f557fba287b35edfe308768d724
  2. First recorded forecast

    First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.

    Record hash7d1a821c63c4b9c493e94aab89d673ec5971462af12d1bc78d320e0b0cc90cdf

Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.

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Available source context

site.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗site.api.espn.com ↗

These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.

Recorded outcome: (22) Jiri Lehecka (CZE) bt Nuno Borges (POR) 6-3 3-6 6-3

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