Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsMMA · Oct 31, 2:00 PM PDT YOUR RESEARCH TASK FORECASTJulian Erosa RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
Julian Erosa vs JeongYeong Lee
54.4%Julian Erosa
NOT LOCKEDAll four probabilities, converted to the same fighter, average 54.38% for Julian Erosa. 3/4 models select this fighter. Low confidence; the house still publishes a winner forecast.
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10 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Claude: Erosa aging, two straight losses incl. recent R1 KO
- Gemini: Erosa's significant experience advantage with 45 professional fights compared to Lee's 14.
- Grok: Erosa 31-14 record and 26 career finishes vs Lee 11-3
- GPT: Erosa has a much larger verified body of work in the supplied evidence, including a 31-14 record and multiple recent UFC wins.
Read all four model reports
Claude · JeongYeong Lee · 61.0%
Erosa is 37, on a two-fight skid including a recent first-round KO loss, and absorbs 6.31 strikes per minute with 49 percent defense. Lee is younger with tighter defensive metrics and better takedown defense, though his profile is thin.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 16, 5:07 PM PDTGemini · Julian Erosa · 54.5%
Julian Erosa brings a massive experience advantage (45 professional fights) and a high-paced, high-volume striking attack (6.18 SLpM) coupled with a potent submission game (14 career submission wins). While Erosa's defensive liabilities (6.31 SApM) and recent first-round KO loss raise valid durability concerns, JeongYeong Lee's significantly lower offensive output (3.38 SLpM) and the lack of recent fight data in the provided evidence make it difficult to confidently back him to exploit those openings. The short-notice addition of the bout introduces variance, but Erosa's proven ability to finish fights at the UFC level gives him a slight edge in a high-variance matchup.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 16, 5:07 PM PDTGrok · Julian Erosa · 67.0%
Erosa holds a large experience edge with 45 professional fights and established UFC striking volume of 6.18 per minute plus 0.71 submissions per 15 minutes. Lee shows lower output at 3.38 strikes per minute and minimal recent-fight data. The bout addition 15 days prior adds uncertainty but does not offset Erosa's finishing rate and career finishes. Sparse Lee profile details limit precision.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 16, 5:07 PM PDTGPT · Julian Erosa · 57.0%
Erosa gets the slight pre-fight edge based on the deeper verified UFC sample, much higher offensive output, and a recent pattern of dangerous finishing wins against UFC-level opposition. His profile shows 6.18 significant strikes landed per minute and proven finishing ability by both knockout and submission, while Lee’s verified UFC statistical profile is lower volume offensively and comes with far less accompanying fight-history detail in the supplied evidence. Erosa’s downside is also clear: he absorbs a lot of strikes, has recent losses including a first-round KO loss, and this matchup was only officially added about 15 days before the event, which increases uncertainty for both fighters. Because the evidence on Lee is sparse and the late addition creates preparation uncertainty, the pick stays close to competitive rather than wide.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 16, 5:07 PM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- Lee profile lacks age, height, reach and fight history
- No licensed pre-event odds available
- Bout added about 15 days out; camp and notice details unverified for both
- JeongYeong Lee's recent fight history is completely missing from the provided evidence, making it impossible to evaluate his current form or level of competition.
- Physical attributes such as height, weight, and reach are missing for JeongYeong Lee.
- Pre-event betting odds are not available to provide market context.
- Lee profile lacks height, weight, DOB, and any recent fights
- No verified late-context details beyond bout addition
What to watch next
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Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
0511305fcc71a311e0a859f90588ce9b4938852eaa1b534a28cc78b22606c28a
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
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