Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsTennis · Oct 17, 4:05 AM PDT FORECASTDaniil Medvedev RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established Current TORK62.5% Simple average62.5% Calibrated average63.7% Kalshi65.0% Inspect the methods and progress →
Daniil Medvedev vs Rafael Jodar
62.5%Daniil Medvedev
LOCKED Oct 17, 3:30 AM PDT4/4 independent models select Daniil Medvedev; all four oriented probabilities average 62.5%.
22 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Gemini: Medvedev's higher ATP rank (6 vs 13)
- Claude: Ranking edge: No. 6 (3,860 pts) vs No. 13 (2,659 pts) favors Medvedev
- Grok: Medvedev current rank 6 versus Jodar rank 13
- GPT: Medvedev has the better current ranking: No. 6 vs No. 13.
Read all four model reports
Gemini · Daniil Medvedev · 68.0%
Daniil Medvedev holds a higher ATP ranking (6th) compared to Rafael Jodar (13th) and has accumulated significantly more ranking points (3860 vs 2659). While their season win percentages are nearly identical (70.7% for Medvedev, 70.4% for Jodar), Medvedev has secured more titles (3 vs 1), indicating a slight edge in deep tournament performance. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 16, 10:30 PM PDTClaude · Daniil Medvedev · 59.0%
Only two evidence dimensions are usable: current ranking and season win-loss. Medvedev is ranked No. 6 with 3,860 points versus Jodar at No. 13 with 2,659 points, a meaningful but not dominant gap (roughly 7 ranking spots, ~45% more points). Season records are nearly identical in rate terms (41-17, .707 vs 38-16, .704), so form provides no separation; Medvedev's three titles versus one offers a slight edge in high-level closing ability. Both are rank-top-15 players in a Masters semifinal, implying a competitive match. Surface-specific form, injury status, head-to-head history, travel/fatigue, and market odds are all unavailable in this evidence package, so the estimate stays close to the modest ranking-implied edge rather than being pushed toward an extreme.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 16, 10:30 PM PDTGrok · Daniil Medvedev · 65.0%
Medvedev holds the superior ranking (6 vs 13) and ranking points (3860 vs 2659) with a comparable season win rate. Jodar’s record is strong but does not offset the ranking gap on the supplied facts alone. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable per the evidence scope.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 16, 10:30 PM PDTGPT · Daniil Medvedev · 58.0%
Using only the supplied evidence, Daniil Medvedev deserves a modest edge. He is ranked higher at No. 6 versus Rafael Jodar at No. 13, which is the strongest signal in the package. Their season records are both strong and fairly close: Medvedev is 41-17 and Jodar is 38-16, so win-rate alone does not create a large separation. Medvedev also has more singles titles this season, 3 to 1, which slightly reinforces the higher ranking. Because surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable, the forecast should stay conservative rather than heavily favoring either player.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 16, 10:30 PM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- Surface-specific form is unavailable
- Injuries are unavailable
- Head-to-head records are unavailable
- Travel fatigue is unavailable
- Market odds are unavailable
- Surface-specific (hard-court) form not supplied
- Injury, fitness, and recent-match-load data unavailable
- Head-to-head record not supplied
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- Probability unchanged
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
a5eb48a1cb4f86393f0b83dfc21504a4b91492e94c7d2d9c90adea7cf1f26013 - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
42b8fce79383e9bcf6aad78363b3be9fe610993cd1552a99e94ef61c952f54bd
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
All probabilities below refer to Daniil Medvedev. Model inputs were fixed at Oct 17, 3:30 AM PDT. The market was observed at Oct 17, 3:25 AM PDT.
Comparison record
Saved Oct 17, 3:30 AM PDT. This is a research comparison; no method has been promoted.
56dc9af634242957f6b264fd10ee46b3b2706447465c6671f2bca09f5813c951Available source context
site.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗
These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.
Recorded outcome: (12) Rafael Jodar (ESP) bt (5) Daniil Medvedev (RUS) 6-3 6-4
Finish your review
Record whether this brief helped, how long the review took, and your next action.
Use this brief for a review →