Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsMMA · Oct 13, 4:00 PM PDT YOUR RESEARCH TASK FORECASTIlias Bulaid RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established Current TORK54.1% Simple average54.1% Calibrated average54.5% Kalshi55.0% Inspect the methods and progress →
Ilias Bulaid vs Erick Visconde
54.1%Ilias Bulaid
LOCKED Oct 13, 3:03 PM PDTAll four probabilities, converted to the same fighter, average 54.13% for Ilias Bulaid. 4/4 models select this fighter. Low confidence; the house still publishes a winner forecast.
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A documented difference, its timing, and limits.
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- Record the difference and what it does not establish.
19 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Gemini: Bulaid's undefeated 9-0 record and high finish rate
- Claude: Bulaid 9-0 with every recent win by stoppage, three inside round one
- GPT: Bulaid is undefeated at 9-0, which is a positive but still based on a smaller sample than Visconde's career.
- Grok: Bulaid 9-0 record with multiple early stoppages
Read all four model reports
Gemini · Ilias Bulaid · 55.5%
Bulaid brings an unblemished 9-0 record, significant finishing ability, and a three-inch height advantage. While Visconde has valuable experience against high-level LFA competition, Bulaid's physical edge and momentum as an undefeated prospect give him a narrow advantage.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 13, 12:44 PM PDTClaude · Ilias Bulaid · 54.0%
Both men arrive on winning form at featherweight with no verified late-context complications, so this is close to a pick'em. Bulaid is undefeated (9-0) and has an exceptional finishing profile in the supplied log: four wins, all stoppages, three in round one, and across varied methods (body-knee TKO, anaconda choke, leg-kick TKO, corner retirement). That versatility plus a three-inch height edge is the main separator. Visconde brings more volume of experience (17-3), a four-fight run in LFA including a KO of Ary Farias and a doctor-stoppage of Chris Mecate, and five-round championship conditioning from his May 2026 split-decision win — but that split result and a prior first-round guillotine loss hint at vulnerabilities Bulaid's finishing style could exploit. With no striking/grappling metrics, no reach or stance data, and no odds, I keep the edge small.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 13, 12:44 PM PDTGPT · Ilias Bulaid · 55.0%
Bulaid gets a slight pre-fight edge based on his unbeaten 9-0 record, strong recent finishing run, and a meaningful size advantage on the supplied profiles (5'10 vs 5'7). His recent results show first-round and early stoppage ability by both strikes and submission, which suggests multiple paths to win. Visconde has the deeper record at 17-3 and also enters on a strong run against recognizable regional competition, so this is not a wide lean. The main reason the probability stays close to even is that the evidence is thin: there are no verified striking or grappling rate stats, no reach data, no stance data, and no opponent-quality framework beyond recent records and methods. With that uncertainty priced in, Bulaid is only a narrow pick.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 13, 12:44 PM PDTGrok · Ilias Bulaid · 52.0%
Bulaid enters undefeated at 9-0 with four straight first- or third-round finishes. Visconde holds a 17-3 record but carries one recent submission loss and has not faced an opponent with Bulaid's finish rate. Height differential favors Bulaid by three inches. No verified late-context factors alter preparation or weight. Absence of striking or grappling metrics and lack of common opponents limit differentiation, keeping the edge minimal.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 13, 12:44 PM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- No advanced striking or grappling statistics available
- Lack of licensed pre-event odds
- Reach and stance metrics are missing
- No striking or grappling rate statistics for either fighter
- Reach and stance missing for both; career finish counts not provided
- No licensed pre-event odds connected
- Zero verified late_context observations — weight, notice, injury, camp status all unverified, not confirmed absent
- Opponent-quality comparison across Brave CF/UAE Warriors vs LFA is not quantified in evidence
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- Probability unchanged
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
0ad21b188e189dfc5e0005efdac429f1c9d1e7007e46225e3e8a1a2b703f5bb3 - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
d2d575b2e915f41cb139832587393b9f59b0eaae213e179c649cdfa18e9acf6c
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
All probabilities below refer to Ilias Bulaid. Model inputs were fixed at Oct 13, 3:03 PM PDT. The market was observed at Oct 13, 3:00 PM PDT.
Comparison record
Saved Oct 13, 3:09 PM PDT. This is a research comparison; no method has been promoted.
a08b69ce443acbdce4d573e9154bc871af114cd6eccba542624c3ea7c3303750Available source context
These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.
Recorded outcome: Erick Visconde def. Ilias Bulaid · unanimous decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
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