Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsMLB · Sep 13, 10:40 AM PDT FORECASTLos Angeles Dodgers RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Miami Marlins
64.5%Los Angeles Dodgers
LOCKED Sep 13, 9:46 AM PDT4/4 independent models select Los Angeles Dodgers; all four oriented probabilities average 64.5%.
16 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Gemini: Emmet Sheehan's excellent recent form with a 1.59 ERA and 0.71 WHIP over the last 30 days
- Claude: Record gap: Dodgers 105-66 vs Marlins 81-88
- Grok: Superior Dodgers season record (105-66 vs 81-88)
- GPT: Los Angeles has the much better overall record (105-66 vs 81-88).
Read all four model reports
Gemini · Los Angeles Dodgers · 68.0%
The Dodgers hold a significant advantage in recent starting pitching form, with Emmet Sheehan posting a 1.59 ERA over the last 30 days compared to Eury Perez's 6.75 ERA. Additionally, Los Angeles boasts a superior overall record, a much stronger run differential over both the last 7 and 30 days, and better bullpen availability.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Sep 13, 7:45 AM PDTClaude · Los Angeles Dodgers · 63.0%
The Dodgers are the clearly stronger team in the supplied evidence: 105-66 vs 81-88, better 30-day run differential (+1.19 vs -0.26) and slightly higher 30-day scoring (4.89 vs 4.63). Both offenses are hot over the last 6 games (6.5 R/G each), but only LA's hot stretch comes with a strong run differential (+3.67 vs -0.67), implying Miami's recent pitching has been leaking runs. Starter comparison is mixed: Sheehan's season ERA (5.08) is worse than Pérez's (3.94), but recent 30-day form flips sharply in LA's favor (1.59/0.71 vs 6.75/1.94). Bullpen availability also favors LA (71 vs 44), which matters in a game where both starters carry volatility. The pitcher-friendly park factor (0.939) modestly compresses the gap by lowering total run variance-ish effects, and home-field is worth a few points to Miami, so I land near 63% rather than higher.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Sep 13, 7:45 AM PDTGrok · Los Angeles Dodgers · 61.0%
Dodgers enter with a 105-66 record versus Marlins 81-88. Dodgers recent starter Sheehan posts 1.59 ERA over last 30 days while Marlins starter Perez shows 6.75 ERA in same span. Dodgers bullpen availability at 71 far exceeds Marlins 44. Both offenses average 6.5 runs per game in last six contests but Dodgers carry a +3.667 run differential compared with Marlins -0.667. 30-day run differentials also favor Dodgers.
xai/grok-4.3 · Sep 13, 7:45 AM PDTGPT · Los Angeles Dodgers · 66.0%
The Dodgers have the stronger overall profile in the supplied evidence. Their 105-66 record is far better than Miami’s 81-88, and their recent team form is stronger as well: over the last 30 days the Dodgers have scored slightly more runs per game (4.885 vs 4.63) but, more importantly, have a clearly better run differential per game (+1.192 vs -0.259). In the last 7 days, both offenses are scoring 6.5 runs per game, yet Los Angeles has a much better run differential (+3.667 vs -0.667), suggesting better all-around performance. The starting pitching comparison is mixed on season-long numbers, but recent form favors the Dodgers’ probable starter Emmet Sheehan (1.59 ERA, 0.71 WHIP over his last 30 days) over Eury Pérez (6.75 ERA, 1.94 WHIP over his last 30 days). Los Angeles also has the fresher bullpen by the supplied availability metric (71 vs 44). Those combined factors make the Dodgers,
openai/gpt-5.4 · Sep 13, 7:45 AM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- Lineups are only partially confirmed, introducing uncertainty regarding starting position players.
- Probable pitchers are subject to change before first pitch.
- Probable pitchers are unconfirmed and could change or be on limited workloads
- Lineup status is only 'partial'; Miami lineup changes unreported (null)
- Small samples: 6-game and ~26-27 game windows, and 30-day pitcher splits cover few starts
- Season ERA vs recent ERA conflict for both starters, so true talent is ambiguous
- No injury, travel, rest-day, or specific weather detail beyond a neutral 1.00 run factor
- No opponent-adjusted or strength-of-schedule context for recent form
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- First recorded forecast
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
c4b88f8a36f24fc69812542b22a27d237a34a67fdce9e29619860e1350714574 - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
4dd06101affc6159e3dd10d9c3d4c76161d8228a233ac6a7ab246ec4bab0faba
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
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Recorded outcome: Los Angeles Dodgers 4, Miami Marlins 6
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