Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsBoxing · Sep 12, 2:00 PM PDT FORECASTAbel Gonzalez RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
Abel Gonzalez vs Raul Salomon
52.0%Abel Gonzalez
LOCKED Sep 12, 9:20 AM PDTAll four probabilities, converted to the same fighter, average 52% for Abel Gonzalez. 4/4 models select this fighter. Low confidence; the house still publishes a winner forecast.
14 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Grok: Weights nearly identical
- Gemini: Scheduled for 8 rounds
- Claude: No records, opponent histories, or recent form supplied for either boxer
- GPT: Only confirmed facts are the matchup, 8-round distance, super middleweight division, and official weights of 167.5 vs 167.
Read all four model reports
Grok · Abel Gonzalez · 50.0%
Evidence supplies only weights (167.5 vs 167), 8 rounds, and super middleweight division. No records, opponent histories, experience, or form data exist. Round count and weight alone establish no skill advantage. Sparse evidence requires 50 probability and low confidence.
xai/grok-4.3 · Sep 12, 9:20 AM PDTGemini · Abel Gonzalez · 51.0%
Records and opponent histories are missing from the provided evidence. With only the scheduled 8 rounds and weigh-in weights available, there is no documented basis to establish a skill or experience advantage for either fighter. Consequently, the forecast defaults to a near toss-up with low confidence.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Sep 12, 9:20 AM PDTClaude · Abel Gonzalez · 57.0%
Evidence is limited to a weigh-in line: 8 rounds at super middleweight, Gonzalez 167.5 vs Salomon 167. No records, opponent quality, recent form, styles, or KO/decision tendencies are documented, so no skill differential can be established. The only weak structural cue is that Gonzalez is listed as side A, a position commonly given to the promoted/favored fighter on an undercard, and he made weight comfortably at the limit. That is a thin basis, so the lean is minimal and confidence is low. Weight difference of half a pound is meaningless. Probability reflects near coin-flip conditional on a decisive result.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Sep 12, 9:20 AM PDTGPT · Abel Gonzalez · 50.0%
This is effectively a coin flip on the supplied evidence. The only verified bout data are names, 8 scheduled rounds at super middleweight, and near-identical official weights. No records, opponent quality, recent form, style notes, or camp/injury information are provided, so there is no documented basis to rate either boxer above the other. I lean Abel Gonzalez only as a forced direction under severe uncertainty.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Sep 12, 9:20 AM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- No verified records or histories
- No injury, camp, or style data
- No detailed opponent quality information
- Missing fighter records
- Missing opponent histories
- Missing recent form and style information
- Only a single weigh-in excerpt available; no fight records
- No injury, camp, layoff, or judging information
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- Probability unchanged
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
d6b4680e2809447db83574d380466af254f46f37fa167b91e17ccfb129885881 - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
b64d22de12aabc06fd55ef741d77d429e7b49c143cba00835113df029db0689b
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
This event has no eligible record in the new comparison cohort. Historical or late forecasts are not filled in after the event.
Inspect the methods and progress →Available source context
These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.
Recorded outcome: Abel Gonzalez defeats Raul Salomon via unanimous decision (77-74, 77-74, 77-74)
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