Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsTennis · Oct 17, 2:00 AM PDT FORECASTPending RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
Ilya Ivashka vs Roman Safiullin
—No winner forecast available
LOCKED Oct 17, 1:30 AM PDT3/4 models published a direction, but no side earned a three-model majority.
19 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Gemini: Roman Safiullin is ranked 79th with 744 points.
- Claude: Safiullin has an explicit current rank of 79 with 744 points, improving from 84
- Grok: Ivashka: rank null, wins 0, losses 0
- GPT: Roman Safiullin has the only explicit current rank in the evidence: ATP No. 79.
Read all four model reports
Gemini · Roman Safiullin · 82.0%
Roman Safiullin holds a solid top-100 ranking at 79 and has been active this season with a 7-7 record. In contrast, Ilya Ivashka is currently unranked and has not recorded any wins or losses this season, suggesting a significant lack of recent competitive play. Given Safiullin's active status and ranking advantage, he is the clear favorite.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 16, 9:05 PM PDTClaude · Roman Safiullin · 68.0%
The only usable discriminating facts are that Safiullin carries an explicit current ATP rank of 79 (744 points, improved from 84) with a 7-7 season singles record, while Ivashka has no listed rank and a blank 0-0 season record, which is consistent with a player who is unranked, returning, or otherwise outside the ranked tour cohort. A top-80 player with active match volume should be favored over an opponent with no supplied ranking or match record, so Safiullin gets a moderate edge. The edge is tempered because a 0-0 record is uninformative rather than evidence of weakness, Ivashka is a former tour-level winner by reputation (not usable here), and the qualifying-round context for a #79 player suggests possible data irregularity. Surface-specific form, injuries, head-to-head, travel/scheduling, and market odds are explicitly unavailable in this evidence package.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 16, 9:05 PM PDTGrok · No selection
Ivashka has null rank, null ranking points and a 0-0 season record while Safiullin has an explicit ATP rank of 79 with 744 points and a 7-7 record. No comparable metrics exist for Ivashka, rendering any win-probability estimate unusable under the evidence-scope rules.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 16, 9:05 PM PDTGPT · Roman Safiullin · 76.0%
Based only on the supplied immutable evidence, Roman Safiullin is the clearly stronger side. He has an explicit current ATP rank of 79 and a 2026 season singles record of 7-7, while Ilya Ivashka is listed with no current rank and a 0-0 season singles record in the provided package. That combination suggests Safiullin has been active at ATP level this season and is currently established inside the top 100, whereas the evidence gives no comparable current ranking or match-result baseline for Ivashka. This is a qualifying first-round match, so uncertainty remains higher than in a main-draw matchup, especially because Ivashka could still be competitive despite the missing ranking data. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable in the evidence, so the estimate must rely almost entirely on Safiullin's ranking and demonstrated 2026 match activity versus Ivash
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 16, 9:05 PM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable.
- The reason for Ivashka's unranked status and lack of matches is not provided.
- No surface-specific form or indoor hard-court results supplied
- No injury, fitness, or layoff information
- No head-to-head history provided
- No travel, rest days, or scheduling context
- No market odds or implied probabilities available
- A #79 player entering qualifying is anomalous and may indicate stale or mismatched ranking data
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- First recorded forecast
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
a9374af1ed6eda8eb0335b6850775add6777d19570292900435e1af132e88f40 - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
725d8344ab7ed1a19409cec815f51d8fc54bf23d54da7c3539f2ae956ebaf5f3
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
This event has no eligible record in the new comparison cohort. Historical or late forecasts are not filled in after the event.
Inspect the methods and progress →Available source context
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These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.
Recorded outcome: Roman Safiullin (RUS) bt Ilya Ivashka (BLR) 6-1 6-7 (4-7) 6-4
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