Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsTennis · Oct 17, 2:00 AM PDT FORECASTPending RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
Ilia Simakin vs Luka Pavlovic
—No winner forecast available
LOCKED Oct 17, 1:30 AM PDT2/4 models published a direction, but no side earned a three-model majority.
20 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Claude: Neither player has a current or previous ATP rank or ranking points in the supplied data
- Gemini: Both players have null rankings.
- Grok: No ranking or ranking points available for either player
- GPT: Both players lack a supplied current rank, removing the strongest usual baseline indicator.
Read all four model reports
Claude · Ilia Simakin · 53.0%
The evidence package supplies almost no discriminating information: neither player has a current ESPN rank, ranking points, or previous rank, and the 2026 tour-level singles records are 0-0 (Simakin) and 0-2 (Pavlovic). Both are ATP qualifying-level players with no titles. The only nominal differentiator is that Pavlovic has two recorded losses while Simakin has no recorded tour-level matches, which is a very weak signal and could equally reflect that Pavlovic has reached more tour-level draws. Surface-specific form, injury status, head-to-head, travel/fatigue, and market odds are all explicitly unavailable. I therefore price this as a near coin flip with a marginal nod to Simakin, and hold confidence low.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 16, 9:15 PM PDTGemini · No selection
Both players lack an ATP ranking. Ilia Simakin has a 0-0 season record, while Luka Pavlovic has a 0-2 season record. With no rankings and virtually no ATP-level match data, the provided facts are unusable to reliably determine a favorite. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 16, 9:15 PM PDTGrok · No selection
Both players lack any ranking data. Simakin shows a 0-0 singles record while Pavlovic shows 0-2; these minimal records provide no usable basis for a directional win probability. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable as they are not supplied in the evidence package.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 16, 9:15 PM PDTGPT · Ilia Simakin · 58.0%
Using only the supplied evidence, the case is thin but slightly favors Ilia Simakin. Neither player has a current rank provided, and Simakin has a 0-0 season singles record while Pavlovic has a 0-2 season singles record. With ranking unavailable for both, the only differentiating fact is Pavlovic's winless 0-2 record versus Simakin's no recorded matches, which modestly points away from Pavlovic rather than strongly toward Simakin. Because the evidence scope is explicitly limited and surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable, this should be treated as a low-confidence lean rather than a strong forecast.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 16, 9:15 PM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- Surface-specific form unavailable
- Injury and fitness status unavailable
- Head-to-head record unavailable
- Travel and scheduling/fatigue data unavailable
- Market odds unavailable
- Win-loss samples are tiny (0 and 2 matches) and exclude Challenger/ITF results
- Surface form is unavailable.
- Injuries are unavailable.
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- First recorded forecast
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
6ec780f4e10efaaf906cecee68abf9d4fd6f135fa1f896faf9ee112d558515cf - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
f89e132f57690dfe72078f37e406902fc48682ca15163dba0e22b9ef761afa62
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
This event has no eligible record in the new comparison cohort. Historical or late forecasts are not filled in after the event.
Inspect the methods and progress →Available source context
site.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗
These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.
Recorded outcome: Ilia Simakin (RUS) bt Luka Pavlovic (FRA) 6-3 3-6 7-6 (8-6)
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