Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsNFL · Sep 27, 10:00 AM PDT FORECASTCincinnati Bengals RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
Cincinnati Bengals vs Pittsburgh Steelers
62.3%Cincinnati Bengals
LOCKED Sep 27, 9:30 AM PDT4/4 independent models select Cincinnati Bengals; all four oriented probabilities average 62.25%.
17 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Claude: Market line: DraftKings CIN -3.5 as road favorite, implying roughly a 63-67% win probability
- Gemini: Cincinnati is favored by 3.5 points on the road.
- Grok: Bengals 2-0 record vs Steelers 1-1
- GPT: Cincinnati is 2-0; Pittsburgh is 1-1.
Read all four model reports
Claude · Cincinnati Bengals · 65.0%
DraftKings lists Cincinnati at -3.5 as the road favorite, which is the single most informative piece of evidence here. A 3.5-point favorite historically wins roughly 63-67% of the time, and that estimate already embeds the market's read on both teams' quality, home-field advantage for Pittsburgh, and expected personnel availability. The records align directionally with the line: Cincinnati is 2-0, Pittsburgh is 1-1. A relatively low total of 42.5 slightly compresses variance-driven upset paths but not enough to move materially off the market-implied number. With no injury or quarterback status supplied, I anchor to the line rather than adjusting it.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Sep 22, 9:11 PM PDTGemini · Cincinnati Bengals · 64.0%
The Cincinnati Bengals are favored by 3.5 points on the road against the Pittsburgh Steelers. A -3.5 spread typically translates to an implied win probability of approximately 63-65%. The Bengals also enter the game undefeated at 2-0, while the Steelers are 1-1.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Sep 22, 9:11 PM PDTGrok · Cincinnati Bengals · 61.0%
Bengals enter at 2-0 while Steelers are 1-1; DraftKings lists CIN -3.5 on the road, indicating the market views Cincinnati as the stronger side even after adjusting for home-field advantage. Early-season records and the spread together support a modest favorite probability for the Bengals.
xai/grok-4.3 · Sep 22, 9:11 PM PDTGPT · Cincinnati Bengals · 59.0%
Cincinnati has the stronger point-in-time evidence package: a 2-0 record versus Pittsburgh's 1-1 record, plus a DraftKings market line of Bengals -3.5 despite this being a road game in Pittsburgh. A favorite of more than a field goal on the road is meaningful comparative evidence and is the strongest signal in the package. Home field for the Steelers offsets some of Cincinnati's edge, so the forecast should not be overly aggressive, but the available evidence supports Cincinnati as the more likely winner.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Sep 22, 9:11 PM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- Injury lists for both teams are empty, likely incomplete rather than genuinely clean this far from kickoff
- No quarterback status or depth-chart detail supplied for either side
- No moneyline odds provided; probability derived from the point spread instead of direct pricing
- Weather data is null for a late-September outdoor game in Pittsburgh
- No efficiency, scoring-margin, or strength-of-schedule data behind the 2-0 and 1-1 records
- Evidence is current as of 2026-09-23, four days before kickoff; line and availability may shift
- No moneyline odds are provided, requiring an estimation based on the point spread.
- Injury reports are currently empty.
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- First recorded forecast
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
2b8fdde49b0a0eafa1c57018ae371aef7272311c020914e39318a561ff98c811 - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
63ab74a2f0625db4782ba02ed5963c34193ca5b3e2272cc16b2ef6bbb6d61fea
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
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Inspect the methods and progress →Available source context
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Recorded outcome: Cincinnati Bengals 27, Pittsburgh Steelers 30
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