Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsCollege Football · Oct 10, 4:30 PM PDT FORECASTAir Force Falcons RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
Northern Illinois Huskies vs Air Force Falcons
72.1%Air Force Falcons
LOCKED Oct 10, 4:01 PM PDT4/4 independent models select Air Force Falcons; all four oriented probabilities average 72.13%.
16 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Gemini: Air Force is favored by 7 points (AF -7)
- Claude: DraftKings line Air Force -7 as the road team, implying ~72-76% win probability
- GPT: Air Force has the better record in the evidence package: 3-1 vs 0-4.
- Grok: Air Force 3-1 record versus Northern Illinois 0-4
Read all four model reports
Gemini · Air Force Falcons · 73.5%
Air Force is a 7-point road favorite against a winless Northern Illinois team. The Falcons' 3-1 record compared to the Huskies' 0-4 record supports the market line favoring Air Force despite playing away from home.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 10, 12:38 PM PDTClaude · Air Force Falcons · 73.0%
Air Force is a 7-point favorite per DraftKings despite playing on the road at Huskie Stadium, which is a strong market signal of a clear talent/form gap. Records corroborate: Air Force 3-1 versus Northern Illinois 0-4. A road favorite of ~7 points historically wins roughly 72-76% of the time; the total of 48.5 is moderate, offering no strong variance adjustment. I shade slightly toward the lower end of that band to respect home-field noise and NIU's upset-capable defensive profile in past MAC-vs-service-academy matchups, though no advanced metrics are supplied to confirm.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 10, 12:38 PM PDTGPT · Air Force Falcons · 71.0%
Air Force is the stronger side on the supplied evidence. The immutable package shows a 3-1 record for Air Force versus 0-4 for Northern Illinois, and the only market signal listed is DraftKings Air Force -7. That combination points to Air Force as the more likely winner even though the game is at Huskie Stadium, which modestly helps Northern Illinois. With no rankings and no deeper team-strength, injury, or efficiency data, the estimate should stay bounded rather than extreme.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 10, 12:38 PM PDTGrok · Air Force Falcons · 71.0%
Air Force holds a 3-1 record against Northern Illinois' 0-4 mark and enters as a 7-point road favorite per the DraftKings line. The combination of superior win-loss standing and the market spread supplies the primary comparative signal favoring Air Force despite the neutral venue adjustment for home-field.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 10, 12:38 PM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- No advanced efficiency metrics provided
- No injury reports or depth chart changes available
- Weather conditions are unknown
- No injury reports, depth-chart, or availability information provided
- No advanced efficiency metrics (SP+, FEI, EPA) or strength-of-schedule context
- Rankings are null for both teams
- No opponent-adjusted scoring margins or common-opponent data
- Single market provider and single snapshot; no line movement history
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- Probability unchanged
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
81eec733ff8c64f17430054ea5f04e22e213b1c16aaf71ef094d22baf064fe38 - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
be36aefb72a0bba1867100ff7f8c3f9732501a35728d0fe5e3ca2135305eb96b
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
This event has no eligible record in the new comparison cohort. Historical or late forecasts are not filled in after the event.
Inspect the methods and progress →Available source context
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Recorded outcome: Final
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