Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsNFL · Oct 11, 1:05 PM PDT YOUR RESEARCH TASK FORECASTDenver Broncos RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established Current TORK63.2% Simple average63.2% Calibrated average64.5% Kalshi64.0% Inspect the methods and progress →
Denver Broncos vs Los Angeles Chargers
63.3%Denver Broncos
LOCKED Oct 11, 12:35 PM PDT4/4 independent models select Denver Broncos; all four oriented probabilities average 63.25%.
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16 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Gemini: Denver Broncos are 3.5-point road favorites
- Claude: Market line DEN -3.5 as the road favorite implies roughly a 63% win probability
- Grok: Broncos 2-2 record vs Chargers 0-4 record
- GPT: DraftKings spread lists Denver -3.5, making the Broncos the market favorite.
Read all four model reports
Gemini · Denver Broncos · 64.0%
The Denver Broncos are 3.5-point road favorites against the winless Los Angeles Chargers (0-4). A 3.5-point spread typically translates to roughly a 63-65% implied win probability for the favorite, reflecting Denver's better early-season performance.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 5, 4:30 AM PDTClaude · Denver Broncos · 64.0%
DraftKings lists Denver as a 3.5-point road favorite, which historically converts to roughly a 62-66% win probability. The records corroborate the line: Denver is 2-2 while the Chargers are 0-4 at home in a low-total (42.5) game, suggesting a defense-leaning, lower-variance script that modestly favors the better-regarded side but keeps the underdog live. Home-field advantage for Los Angeles is already embedded in the posted spread, so no further adjustment is made. Absent injury or quarterback-status detail, I anchor to the market rather than deviate.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 5, 4:30 AM PDTGrok · Denver Broncos · 61.0%
Broncos enter at 2-2 while Chargers are 0-4. The DraftKings market line lists DEN -3.5 on the road, indicating the oddsmakers view Denver as the stronger side. No injury data or quarterback details are supplied, and the game is still six days away, but the combination of record and spread supplies the only comparative evidence available.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 5, 4:30 AM PDTGPT · Denver Broncos · 64.0%
Denver is the best evidence-supported favorite. The immutable package shows Denver at 2-2 and the Chargers at 0-4, with Los Angeles at home. The strongest comparative signal is the market spread of DEN -3.5 from DraftKings, which implies Denver is the expected winner even after accounting for home field. The records also favor Denver, though early-season records are a weaker signal than a market line. With no weather concerns provided and no listed injuries in the package, the available evidence points to Denver as the more likely winner. Because quarterback/injury completeness is limited and no moneyline is supplied, the estimate should remain moderate rather than high confidence.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 5, 4:30 AM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- No moneyline odds provided
- Injury reports are empty
- Weather data is missing
- No moneyline prices provided; probability inferred from spread conversion
- Injury lists are empty for both teams, likely incomplete rather than genuinely clean
- No quarterback or depth-chart confirmation
- No weather data (indoor venue mitigates this)
- Evidence current as of Oct 5, nearly a week before kickoff; line could move
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- Selection changed from Los Angeles Chargers to Denver Broncos
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
1823ef570dfe18b12e2df986fa94a345fc3f8fed68412f13cdc1f2ac36c56d9d - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
cfc5e1f933b5307d3d46805c4d17ed8311dcb70ab9ff22392bcfd9872283dd7a
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
All probabilities below refer to Denver Broncos. Model inputs were fixed at Oct 11, 12:35 PM PDT. The market was observed at Oct 11, 12:30 PM PDT.
Comparison record
Saved Oct 11, 12:39 PM PDT. This is a research comparison; no method has been promoted.
695c157edd5cd1ff9119b1f6ced641d03f7c8ba6ff1bb3e11a40e72ca248e45eAvailable source context
These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.
Recorded outcome: Denver Broncos 23, Los Angeles Chargers 17
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