Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsBoxing · Sep 12, 2:00 PM PDT FORECASTRyan Garcia RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
Ryan Garcia vs Conor Benn
60.8%Ryan Garcia
LOCKED Sep 12, 9:20 AM PDTAll four probabilities, converted to the same fighter, average 60.75% for Ryan Garcia. 4/4 models select this fighter. Confidence is limited by the underlying model evidence.
15 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Claude: Garcia is documented champion (25-2, 20 KOs) making first welterweight title defense; Benn is challenger
- Gemini: Garcia's 25-2 record with 20 KOs
- Grok: Garcia holds and defends welterweight title
- GPT: Garcia is the reigning welterweight titleholder and making a first defense.
Read all four model reports
Claude · Ryan Garcia · 60.0%
Only Garcia has a documented record (25-2, 20 KOs) and he is the reigning welterweight champion making a first defense, with amateur pedigree and a high knockout rate. Benn's resume is credible — a 2026 win over Regis Prograis and two celebrated fights with Eubank Jr — but those were at 160, and his record, results and methods are not supplied. Absent verified Benn data, the champion/challenger framing and Garcia's documented power and speed give a modest, not decisive, edge. Sparse and one-sided evidence keeps this near a coin flip with low confidence.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Sep 12, 9:19 AM PDTGemini · Ryan Garcia · 60.0%
Ryan Garcia enters as the defending World Welterweight Champion with a strong 25-2 record and 20 KOs, indicating significant finishing power. Conor Benn brings momentum from a recent victory over Regis Prograis and experience in heavier weight classes, including bouts at 160 pounds. However, Garcia's established championship status at welterweight and proven knockout ability give him a slight edge. The lack of Benn's complete professional record and detailed statistical metrics limits confidence in a definitive prediction, but Garcia's pedigree and current form as the titleholder make him the favored side.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Sep 12, 9:19 AM PDTGrok · Ryan Garcia · 62.0%
Garcia enters as defending welterweight champion after capturing the title in his prior bout, with documented 25-2-0 record and 20 KOs since 2016 debut. Benn challenges after a win over Prograis but lacks comparable title or record detail in evidence. Both weigh near 146 lb for 12 rounds with noted style contrast; sparse opponent-adjusted history and no camp or form metrics lower certainty.
xai/grok-4.3 · Sep 12, 9:19 AM PDTGPT · Ryan Garcia · 61.0%
Garcia gets the slight edge on the supplied evidence: he is the defending welterweight champion, the preview gives a documented 25-2 record with 20 KOs, and he is described as back on top after winning the title in his last outing. Benn is presented as dangerous and coming off a win over Regis Prograis, with “contrasting styles” noted, but the feed lacks Benn’s full record and broader opponent-adjusted history. At 12 rounds and near-even weights, only a modest lean is justified.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Sep 12, 9:19 AM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- Benn's professional record, KO rate and debut date are absent from the evidence
- No opponent-adjusted histories, judges, camp, or injury data
- Outcomes of the Eubank Jr fights and Prograis bout details (method, rounds) not specified beyond Benn's Prograis victory
- Promotional copy is the primary source, which is inherently favorable framing for both sides
- No information on Garcia's two losses or his most recent title-winning performance
- Benn's exact professional record is missing
- No detailed opponent-adjusted history
- No Benn professional record supplied
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- Probability unchanged
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
53d0f4eaf4dbf51c8770d9f96c8b924cfd0b64fcc8dc8239d28164ea2dac8510 - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
564636c450614c5c83f08828c345c91c5351cd1b98b72ed00e6565ca53bc8baa
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
This event has no eligible record in the new comparison cohort. Historical or late forecasts are not filled in after the event.
Inspect the methods and progress →Available source context
These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.
Recorded outcome: World Welterweight Championship: Ryan Garcia defeats Conor Benn by TKO, Round 2, 1:25
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