Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsCollege Football · Oct 10, 4:00 PM PDT FORECASTMarshall Thundering Herd RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
Marshall Thundering Herd vs Coastal Carolina Chanticleers
65.3%Marshall Thundering Herd
LOCKED Oct 10, 3:31 PM PDT4/4 independent models select Marshall Thundering Herd; all four oriented probabilities average 65.25%.
18 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Gemini: Marshall is favored by 4.5 points in the betting market.
- Claude: DraftKings line MRSH -4.5 implies roughly a 68-71% home-favorite win probability
- Grok: Marshall 3-2 record versus Coastal Carolina 1-4
- GPT: Marshall has the better record: 3-2 versus Coastal Carolina's 1-4.
Read all four model reports
Gemini · Marshall Thundering Herd · 65.0%
Marshall is a 4.5-point home favorite with a 3-2 record, while Coastal Carolina enters the game at 1-4. The market line and home-field advantage at Joan C. Edwards Stadium suggest a solid probability of a Marshall victory.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 10, 10:08 AM PDTClaude · Marshall Thundering Herd · 69.0%
Marshall is the home favorite at Joan C. Edwards Stadium with a DraftKings line of -4.5, which historically converts to roughly a 68-71% win probability for the favorite in college football. Supporting evidence aligns: Marshall enters 3-2 while Coastal Carolina is 1-4, neither is ranked, and the home-field advantage is already embedded in the posted number. I anchor on the market line as the most information-dense signal and nudge nothing beyond it, since no injury, depth-chart, or efficiency data is supplied to justify deviation.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 10, 10:08 AM PDTGrok · Marshall Thundering Herd · 62.0%
Marshall holds a 3-2 record against Coastal Carolina's 1-4. The matchup occurs at Marshall's home venue, and the supplied DraftKings market line lists Marshall as a 4.5-point favorite. These elements together indicate Marshall as the stronger side on the supplied facts.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 10, 10:08 AM PDTGPT · Marshall Thundering Herd · 65.0%
Marshall is the evidence-based favorite. The immutable package shows Marshall with the better record (3-2 vs 1-4), home field at Joan C. Edwards Stadium, and a market line of Marshall -4.5. Those three signals all point in the same direction and provide a meaningful comparative edge. A spread in the 4 to 5 point range typically implies a modest but clear favorite rather than a toss-up or overwhelming mismatch, so an estimate in the mid-60% range is warranted. With no rankings provided and no injury or efficiency data available in the package, the estimate should remain bounded rather than aggressive.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 10, 10:08 AM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- Advanced team efficiency metrics and detailed statistical profiles are not available.
- Injury reports and potential depth-chart changes are missing.
- Weather conditions and other game-day variables are not provided.
- No injury reports, availability, or depth-chart information provided
- No advanced efficiency metrics (SP+, FEI, EPA) or strength-of-schedule context
- Records given without opponent quality or margin-of-victory detail
- Single market provider and single line snapshot; no line movement history
- No weather or travel information
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- Probability unchanged
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
3301c1cd18ff4e605b4a3a619db83d34c1eac90612ae16fe8b29a6c35c7d0089 - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
3569626153d2144793a0468227cd828fa39c66b2b0fce45f99c8d24a3b106b8e
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
This event has no eligible record in the new comparison cohort. Historical or late forecasts are not filled in after the event.
Inspect the methods and progress →Available source context
These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.
Recorded outcome: Final
Finish your review
Record whether this brief helped, how long the review took, and your next action.
Use this brief for a review →