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Tennis · Oct 13, 6:10 AM PDT

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Hubert Hurkacz

57.5%Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
LOCKED Oct 13, 4:00 AM PDT

4/4 independent models select Alejandro Davidovich Fokina; all four oriented probabilities average 57.5%.

FORECASTAlejandro Davidovich Fokina

Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.

RELIABILITY4/4 model reports

19 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.

MARKET VALUENot established

A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.

Why the models lean this way

These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.

  • Claude: Ranking edge: ADF 26 vs Hurkacz 34; points 1930 vs 1475
  • Grok: Fokina rank 26 and 1930 points vs Hurkacz rank 34 and 1475 points
  • Gemini: Davidovich Fokina has a higher ATP ranking (26) compared to Hurkacz (34).
  • GPT: Davidovich Fokina is ranked higher: #26 vs Hurkacz at #34.
Read all four model reports

Claude · Alejandro Davidovich Fokina · 57.0%

Only current ranking and season singles records are supplied. Davidovich Fokina holds the better ranking (26 vs 34), more ranking points (1930 vs 1475), a stronger win rate (27-16, .628 vs 24-19, .558), and two titles to Hurkacz's none. These gaps are modest, so the implied edge is small. Hurkacz's rank is improving (39 to 34), which slightly offsets. Surface-specific form, injury status, head-to-head, travel/fatigue, and market odds are all unavailable, so this estimate is deliberately close to a coin flip with a mild lean toward the higher-ranked, better-performing player.

anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 13, 1:15 AM PDT

Grok · Alejandro Davidovich Fokina · 57.0%

Fokina holds the superior current rank (26 vs 34), higher ranking points (1930 vs 1475), and better season record (27-16 vs 24-19). These supplied facts indicate Fokina as the stronger player on paper. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable as explicitly stated in the evidence scope.

xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 13, 1:15 AM PDT

Gemini · Alejandro Davidovich Fokina · 60.0%

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina holds a clear advantage across all provided metrics. He is ranked higher (26 vs 34), has accumulated more ranking points (1930 vs 1475), boasts a superior season win-loss record (27-16 vs 24-19), and has won 2 titles this season compared to zero for Hubert Hurkacz. Based on these fundamental season performance indicators, Davidovich Fokina is the moderate favorite.

google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 13, 1:15 AM PDT

GPT · Alejandro Davidovich Fokina · 56.0%

Using only the supplied evidence, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina has the stronger current profile: he is ranked higher (#26 vs #34), has more ranking points (1930 vs 1475), and owns the better 2026 singles record (27-16 vs 24-19). Those indicators point to a modest edge rather than a decisive one, because both players have similar total match volume and broadly comparable season results. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable in the evidence package, so this estimate remains conservative.

openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 13, 1:15 AM PDT

What remains uncertain

  • Surface-specific (hard-court) form not supplied
  • Injury or withdrawal status not supplied
  • Head-to-head history not supplied
  • Travel, scheduling, and rest/fatigue data not supplied
  • Market odds unavailable, so no external calibration anchor
  • No recent-match or set-level results, only aggregate season record
  • Surface-specific form unavailable
  • Injuries unavailable

What to watch next

Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.

Open the event and source context →

What changed before the lock

  1. Probability unchanged

    The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.

    Record hash42137e479057ac5f2765fb2ab2da404a11c759c91911c6764584fc083f72319e
  2. First recorded forecast

    First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.

    Record hash9983ddb4f0bfd39842043a2b82c769f7812ee47932096a8b42882ee68d95ce43

Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.

The saved method comparison

All probabilities below refer to Alejandro Davidovich Fokina. Model inputs were fixed at Oct 13, 4:00 AM PDT. The market was observed at Oct 13, 3:55 AM PDT.

Current TORK57.5%
Simple average57.5%
Calibrated average58.2%
Kalshi50.0%
Comparison record

Saved Oct 13, 4:04 AM PDT. This is a research comparison; no method has been promoted.

902bf8d9ad2fe3653d7ff57a010b4f3abd141b52840be8ce687fb55893bb6e08
Inspect the methods and progress →

Available source context

site.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗site.api.espn.com ↗

These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.

Recorded outcome: (25) Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (ESP) bt Hubert Hurkacz (POL) 1-6 6-3 7-6 (8-6)

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