Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsTennis · Oct 17, 4:50 AM PDT YOUR RESEARCH TASK FORECASTClara Burel RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
Clara Burel vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro
58.5%Clara Burel
LOCKED Oct 17, 4:00 AM PDT4/4 independent models select Clara Burel; all four oriented probabilities average 58.5%.
Review official results
One lesson to investigate in future events.
- Read the original forecast before the outcome.
- Check the recorded official result and source context.
- Record a lesson without treating one result as proof.
18 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Gemini: Clara Burel has a season singles record of 21 wins and 11 losses.
- Grok: Burel season record 21-11 vs Maneiro 23-27
- Claude: Burel season win rate .656 (21-11) vs Bouzas Maneiro .460 (23-27)
- GPT: Clara Burel season record: 21-11
Read all four model reports
Gemini · Clara Burel · 62.0%
Clara Burel has a significantly better season win-loss record (21-11, 65.6% win rate) compared to Jessica Bouzas Maneiro (23-27, 46.0% win rate). Although Burel's current ranking is unavailable, her strong season performance makes her the favorite over Bouzas Maneiro, who holds a losing record for the year. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 16, 11:00 PM PDTGrok · Clara Burel · 58.0%
Clara Burel holds a superior season singles record of 21-11 compared to Jessica Bouzas Maneiro's 23-27. Maneiro has an explicit ranking of 99 while Burel's rank is null. Using only these supplied facts yields a modest edge to Burel. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable as they are not supplied in the evidence package.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 16, 11:00 PM PDTClaude · Clara Burel · 62.0%
The only usable discriminator is 2026 season singles record: Burel is 21-11 (.656) versus Bouzas Maneiro at 23-27 (.460), a meaningful gap of roughly 20 percentage points in win rate across comparable sample sizes. Bouzas Maneiro's explicit rank (99, slipping from 96, 750 points) indicates a player hovering just outside the top 100 with a losing season, while Burel's missing rank prevents direct ranking comparison but her winning record suggests at least comparable standing. Surface-specific form, injury status, head-to-head history, travel/fatigue from earlier rounds, and market odds are all unavailable in this evidence package, so the edge is kept modest and both players are treated as having reached the same semifinal stage.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 16, 11:00 PM PDTGPT · Clara Burel · 52.0%
Using only the supplied evidence, Clara Burel has the stronger 2026 season singles record at 21-11 versus Jessica Bouzas Maneiro’s 23-27, which modestly favors Burel. Bouzas Maneiro does have the explicit current ranking edge at No. 99, while Burel’s current rank is unavailable in the package, so ranking comparison is incomplete rather than contradictory. With season record favoring Burel and ranking evidence only partially available, the best evidence-bounded estimate is a very slight lean to Burel. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable here and therefore cannot be incorporated.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 16, 11:00 PM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- Clara Burel's current ranking is not supplied in the evidence.
- Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable.
- No surface-specific data available
- No head-to-head data available
- No injury or travel information supplied
- No market odds or ranking points for Burel
- No current ranking or ranking points for Clara Burel
- Surface-specific (hard/clay/indoor) form not supplied
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- Probability unchanged
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
53c6762898f73639ad055d147fe8849dc4e50ecf308b2ffdf94a303117dea75f - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
7357e1539724c9306309e88cde355213cd62973702de3cba10c79d0216b03a4a
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
This event has no eligible record in the new comparison cohort. Historical or late forecasts are not filled in after the event.
Inspect the methods and progress →Available source context
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These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.
Recorded outcome: Clara Burel (FRA) bt (1) Jessica Bouzas Maneiro (ESP) 6-4 6-4
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