Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsNFL · Sep 20, 10:00 AM PDT YOUR RESEARCH TASK FORECASTChicago Bears RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
Minnesota Vikings vs Chicago Bears
63.8%Chicago Bears
LOCKED Sep 20, 9:30 AM PDT4/4 independent models select Chicago Bears; all four oriented probabilities average 63.75%.
Check the evidence
The most important gap and your next source check.
- Read the model reasons and reported limits.
- Inspect available source context; record missing sources.
- Identify what remains unverified and your next action.
17 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Grok: Chicago Bears listed as 4.5-point home favorites on DraftKings
- Claude: DraftKings line CHI -4.5 implies roughly a 68-71% home win probability
- Gemini: Chicago Bears are 4.5-point favorites.
- GPT: DraftKings market line lists Chicago as a 4.5-point home favorite
Read all four model reports
Grok · Chicago Bears · 57.0%
Both teams enter at 1-0 with no injury data or other performance metrics supplied. The only comparative signal is the DraftKings market line listing Chicago as a 4.5-point home favorite. Soldier Field home status supplies a modest additional edge. These two factors together support a narrow probability tilt toward the Bears while remaining well short of a high-confidence forecast.
xai/grok-4.3 · Sep 20, 7:15 AM PDTClaude · Chicago Bears · 69.0%
The only differentiating evidence is the DraftKings line: Chicago -4.5 at home with a 46.5 total. Both teams are 1-0, so records provide no edge. A 4.5-point home favorite in a moderate-total game historically converts to roughly a 68-71% win probability; the lowish total slightly firms that margin's value. No injury entries are listed for either side and no weather data is provided, so no adjustment away from the market is justified. I therefore anchor essentially at the implied market number rather than fading it.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Sep 20, 7:15 AM PDTGemini · Chicago Bears · 66.0%
The Chicago Bears are favored by 4.5 points at home against the Minnesota Vikings. A -4.5 point spread typically correlates to an implied win probability of approximately 66%. Both teams are 1-0, but the betting market clearly favors the Bears at Soldier Field.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Sep 20, 7:15 AM PDTGPT · Chicago Bears · 63.0%
Chicago is the best evidence-backed favorite because the only comparative edge in the package is the market line: Bears -4.5 at home. Both teams are 1-0, so record provides no separation. A home favorite of 4.5 points generally implies a meaningful but not overwhelming win probability, making Chicago the likely winner more often than not. With no usable injury, quarterback, weather, or moneyline detail in the package, the estimate should stay close to what the spread alone supports rather than becoming more aggressive.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Sep 20, 7:15 AM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- No team statistics, quarterback information, or advanced metrics provided
- Injury reports empty and therefore uninformative
- Market line is the sole source of relative team strength
- Injury lists are empty for both teams, which likely reflects unpublished game-status reports rather than full health
- No quarterback or depth-chart information provided
- No moneyline odds given; probability derived from spread conversion
- Weather is null for an outdoor September game in Chicago
- One-game records carry minimal predictive signal
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- First recorded forecast
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
902253b4293a5da978bf1ea850934c88e08cbd204949cac9a48e5982acbf911f - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
68729b61481fc408bfe5493888015cf02d40a832f1cc2430e4d0c38199ce9ee3
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
This event has no eligible record in the new comparison cohort. Historical or late forecasts are not filled in after the event.
Inspect the methods and progress →Available source context
These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.
Recorded outcome: Minnesota Vikings 9, Chicago Bears 3
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