Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsNFL · Oct 4, 1:25 PM PDT YOUR RESEARCH TASK FORECASTSan Francisco 49ers RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established Current TORK58.5% Simple average58.5% Calibrated average59.3% Kalshi60.0% Inspect the methods and progress →
Denver Broncos vs San Francisco 49ers
58.5%San Francisco 49ers
LOCKED Oct 4, 12:55 PM PDT4/4 independent models select San Francisco 49ers; all four oriented probabilities average 58.5%.
Check the evidence
The most important gap and your next source check.
- Read the model reasons and reported limits.
- Inspect available source context; record missing sources.
- Identify what remains unverified and your next action.
16 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Gemini: San Francisco is the home team and holds a 3-0 record.
- Claude: Market line SF -3 (home favorite), the single strongest supplied signal
- Grok: 49ers 3-0 record versus Broncos 2-1 record
- GPT: San Francisco is undefeated at 3-0 while Denver is 2-1.
Read all four model reports
Gemini · San Francisco 49ers · 60.0%
The San Francisco 49ers are 3-0 and playing at home against the 2-1 Denver Broncos. The betting market has set the 49ers as 3-point favorites, which historically translates to roughly a 60% implied win probability. Without moneyline odds or injury reports, the point spread and home-field advantage are the primary indicators.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 3, 1:45 PM PDTClaude · San Francisco 49ers · 59.0%
SF is home favored by 3 at DraftKings with a 48.5 total; a 3-point home favorite historically wins roughly 58-60% of the time. Records (SF 3-0 vs DEN 2-1) modestly support the same direction but are only three games of signal. No injury or QB information is provided for either side, and no moneylines are listed, so I anchor to the spread-implied baseline without further adjustment.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 3, 1:45 PM PDTGrok · San Francisco 49ers · 57.0%
San Francisco enters at 3-0 while Denver is 2-1. The game is at Levi's Stadium and the DraftKings market line lists SF -3, indicating the home team is modestly favored. These two data points together support a win probability slightly above 50 percent for the 49ers. No other comparative team metrics are supplied.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 3, 1:45 PM PDTGPT · San Francisco 49ers · 58.0%
San Francisco is the better-supported winner based on the supplied evidence package. The 49ers are 3-0, Denver is 2-1, and San Francisco is at home in Santa Clara. The market line of SF -3 is the strongest comparative signal in the package and implies the 49ers should be favored by more than a coin flip, though not overwhelmingly. With no usable quarterback, weather, or meaningful injury detail beyond empty lists, the estimate should stay fairly close to the market-implied range rather than becoming more aggressive.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 3, 1:45 PM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- No moneyline odds are provided, requiring estimation from the point spread.
- Injury reports and starting quarterback details are missing.
- Weather conditions are not provided.
- Injury lists are empty for both teams, likely incomplete rather than genuinely clean
- No quarterback status or depth-chart information supplied
- No moneyline prices to cross-check the spread-implied probability
- Only 3 games of 2026 record data; no point differential or efficiency metrics
- Weather field is null
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- 0.3 percentage points lower for San Francisco 49ers
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
6bce9c923673110d9c6178398295e0bf89c8f477dcc1a571f2c02a79e6cbfc5d - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
cd28f060a9ce13b8f1af1374d97a049b5466cb252805e91960a51048ecbef4f6
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
All probabilities below refer to San Francisco 49ers. Model inputs were fixed at Oct 4, 12:55 PM PDT. The market was observed at Oct 4, 12:50 PM PDT.
Comparison record
Saved Oct 4, 12:59 PM PDT. This is a research comparison; no method has been promoted.
124920db039c7dea7571092113cb5edd0969b6ab7cc6139d94344db774683264Available source context
These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.
Recorded outcome: Denver Broncos 14, San Francisco 49ers 24
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