Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsNFL · Sep 13, 1:25 PM PDT FORECASTPhiladelphia Eagles RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
Washington Commanders vs Philadelphia Eagles
70.9%Philadelphia Eagles
LOCKED Sep 13, 12:55 PM PDT4/4 independent models select Philadelphia Eagles; all four oriented probabilities average 70.88%.
17 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Claude: DraftKings line PHI -6 implies roughly 70-73% home win probability
- Gemini: Philadelphia Eagles are favored by 6 points.
- Grok: Eagles are 6-point home favorites per market line
- GPT: DraftKings market line lists Philadelphia -6
Read all four model reports
Claude · Philadelphia Eagles · 71.0%
The only meaningful comparative signal is the DraftKings line: PHI -6 at home with a total of 43.5. A 6-point favorite historically wins roughly 70-73% of the time; the low total (43.5) slightly firms the favorite's win probability relative to a high-scoring script. Both teams are 0-0 in Week 1, so records add nothing, and no injury or QB availability data is provided. Home field at Lincoln Financial Field is already embedded in the line. I anchor near the market-implied value with no material adjustment, landing at ~71% for Philadelphia.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Sep 13, 12:40 PM PDTGemini · Philadelphia Eagles · 71.5%
The Philadelphia Eagles are 6-point home favorites against the Washington Commanders. A -6 spread in the NFL typically translates to an implied win probability of approximately 71-72%. Being Week 1, there is inherent uncertainty, but the market strongly favors the Eagles at home.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Sep 13, 12:40 PM PDTGrok · Philadelphia Eagles · 70.0%
Week 1 matchup at Lincoln Financial Field with Eagles listed as 6-point home favorites on the DraftKings market line. Both teams enter at 0-0 with no injury data or prior 2026 performance supplied. Home status plus the spread provide the only comparative signal favoring Philadelphia.
xai/grok-4.3 · Sep 13, 12:40 PM PDTGPT · Philadelphia Eagles · 71.0%
Philadelphia is the home team and the only strong comparative evidence in the package is the market spread of Eagles -6. In an NFL game, a 6-point home favorite is a meaningful signal that the home team is more likely than not to win outright. Both teams are 0-0 in Week 1, so there is no season performance evidence to separate them, and there are no injury details providing additional adjustment. Using only the supplied evidence, the Eagles should be favored to win, with an estimated win probability around 71%.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Sep 13, 12:40 PM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- Injury lists empty for both teams; likely incomplete rather than genuinely clean
- No quarterback or depth-chart confirmation provided
- No moneyline odds supplied for a direct implied probability
- Weather is null for an outdoor September game
- Week 1 carries elevated uncertainty: no current-season performance data
- Single market provider (DraftKings) with no line-movement history
- No moneyline odds are provided, requiring a spread-to-probability conversion.
- No injury reports are available.
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- First recorded forecast
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
6158184dbac6bc8e5b6d01e6c9bd2c8bade537e7da545348bf86f2926d2f3a0b - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
36579c5a6e46f2c5c82a6496e19028d1902fedd315ee3f99f062f2bf998d87dd
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
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Inspect the methods and progress →Available source context
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Recorded outcome: Washington Commanders 22, Philadelphia Eagles 24
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