Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsCollege Football · Oct 15, 5:00 PM PDT FORECASTTexas State Bobcats RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
Texas State Bobcats vs Colorado State Rams
82.0%Texas State Bobcats
LOCKED Oct 15, 4:32 PM PDT4/4 independent models select Texas State Bobcats; all four oriented probabilities average 82%.
17 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Claude: DraftKings line TXST -14.5 implies a strong home favorite (~85% win equity)
- Gemini: Texas State is favored by 14.5 points
- Grok: TXST -14.5 market line at home venue
- GPT: DraftKings market line lists Texas State -14.5, a strong indicator of win likelihood
Read all four model reports
Claude · Texas State Bobcats · 85.0%
Both teams enter 2-3 with no rankings, so the decisive comparative signal is the DraftKings line: Texas State is a 14.5-point home favorite at UFCU Stadium. A two-score home favorite of that size historically converts to roughly an 85% win rate. The elevated total (69.5) implies a higher-variance, pace-up game, which modestly compresses the favorite's edge relative to a low-total game of the same spread, so I shade slightly below a pure 14.5-point conversion. Identical records provide no offsetting counter-signal against the market.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 14, 12:53 PM PDTGemini · Texas State Bobcats · 85.0%
Texas State is a 14.5-point home favorite against Colorado State. Despite both teams holding identical 2-3 records, the substantial point spread strongly indicates Texas State is the superior team and highly likely to win outright.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 14, 12:53 PM PDTGrok · Texas State Bobcats · 78.0%
Both teams enter at 2-3. Texas State hosts at UFCU Stadium and is favored by 14.5 points on the DraftKings line. A double-digit home favorite in FBS typically carries a 75-82% implied win probability; the neutral records and lack of rankings do not offset the market signal.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 14, 12:53 PM PDTGPT · Texas State Bobcats · 80.0%
Texas State is the clear favorite in the supplied evidence because the only strong comparative signal provided is the market line: Texas State -14.5 at home. The teams have identical 2-3 records and no rankings, so record and ranking do not separate them. A two-touchdown home spread is a substantial signal toward Texas State winning outright, supporting an estimate around 80%.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 14, 12:53 PM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- No injury, suspension, or depth-chart information supplied
- No advanced efficiency, SP+/FPI, or strength-of-schedule metrics provided
- Records given without opponent quality or margin context
- Single sportsbook line with no line-movement history or consensus
- Kickoff/status detail lists Thu Oct 15 8:00 PM EDT against a 2026-10-16T00:00Z start, a minor formatting inconsistency
- Weather and travel conditions unknown
- Missing advanced team efficiency metrics
- No injury reports or depth chart changes provided
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- 3.8 percentage points higher for Texas State Bobcats
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
4ed72a08ce3419921bd4a181da02a05aa964b052c3f565db06d926929cad0af3 - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
816d3adc86d5ce104be8481bea3a54e5a24916956219f5e47694cd4cf6878734
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
This event has no eligible record in the new comparison cohort. Historical or late forecasts are not filled in after the event.
Inspect the methods and progress →Available source context
These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.
Recorded outcome: Final
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