Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsTennis · Oct 17, 6:30 AM PDT YOUR RESEARCH TASK FORECASTNishesh Basavareddy RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established Current TORK66.0% Simple average66.0% Calibrated average67.5% Kalshi64.0% Inspect the methods and progress →
Edas Butvilas vs Nishesh Basavareddy
66.0%Nishesh Basavareddy
LOCKED Oct 17, 6:00 AM PDT4/4 independent models select Nishesh Basavareddy; all four oriented probabilities average 66%.
Review official results
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- Read the original forecast before the outcome.
- Check the recorded official result and source context.
- Record a lesson without treating one result as proof.
20 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Gemini: Nishesh Basavareddy is ranked 139th on the ATP tour.
- Claude: Basavareddy holds explicit ATP rank 139 (419 points); Butvilas has no listed rank or points
- Grok: Basavareddy explicit rank 139 vs Butvilas null rank
- GPT: Nishesh Basavareddy has an explicit current ATP ranking of No. 139.
Read all four model reports
Gemini · Nishesh Basavareddy · 65.0%
Nishesh Basavareddy enters this qualifying match with an established ATP ranking of 139, whereas Edas Butvilas currently has no ranking data available. Both players have limited ATP-level match experience this season, with Butvilas holding a 2-2 record and Basavareddy at 3-5. The established ranking gives Basavareddy a measurable edge in proven quality over an unranked opponent, making him the moderate favorite. However, confidence remains low due to the small sample size of matches. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 17, 12:00 AM PDTClaude · Nishesh Basavareddy · 70.0%
The only discriminating evidence is ranking: Basavareddy has an explicit current ATP rank of 139 with 419 points and a stable previous rank of 139, while Butvilas has no listed rank or ranking points, implying he sits outside the ranked cohort shown here (typically lower-tier/challenger level). Season tour-level records are small-sample and mildly favor Butvilas (2-2 vs 3-5), but win-loss records at different competition levels are not comparable and Basavareddy's tougher schedule plausibly explains his sub-.500 mark. Surface-specific form, injuries, head-to-head, travel/fatigue, and market odds are all unavailable, which caps confidence. A moderate edge to the ranked player is the defensible estimate for an ATP qualifying first round.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 17, 12:00 AM PDTGrok · Nishesh Basavareddy · 62.0%
Nishesh Basavareddy holds an explicit ATP rank of 139 with 419 ranking points while Edas Butvilas has null rank and null points. Season singles records are 3-5 for Basavareddy versus 2-2 for Butvilas. These are the only supplied quantitative facts. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable as they are not supplied in the evidence package.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 17, 12:00 AM PDTGPT · Nishesh Basavareddy · 67.0%
Using only the supplied evidence, Basavareddy has the clearest objective edge because he has an explicit ATP rank of No. 139, while Butvilas has no current rank supplied in the package. The season records are limited and small-sample: Butvilas is 2-2 and Basavareddy is 3-5, which does not strongly favor either player and if anything slightly softens Basavareddy’s case. Given the instruction to make the best evidence-bounded estimate from supplied facts, the ranking evidence is more informative than these very short win-loss samples, so Basavareddy should be favored, but not overwhelmingly. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable in the evidence package.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 17, 12:00 AM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable.
- Edas Butvilas's ranking is missing from the data.
- Small sample size of season matches limits statistical reliability.
- No surface-specific (indoor hard) form supplied
- No injury or fitness information
- No head-to-head history
- No travel/scheduling or recent-match data
- No market odds available for calibration
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- 1.0 percentage points higher for Nishesh Basavareddy
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
1894b611c94bbb84ccd4b821e2804d2a4ac789ff80207db559325f3a17eae6bf - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
401946cfca776ba563f4e970a2ed302156493626eef8cf5bb670c7ddbd90b935
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
All probabilities below refer to Nishesh Basavareddy. Model inputs were fixed at Oct 17, 6:00 AM PDT. The market was observed at Oct 17, 5:55 AM PDT.
Comparison record
Saved Oct 17, 6:00 AM PDT. This is a research comparison; no method has been promoted.
9e2a26689a38b626888d6024bcb4b007bd15f4ebc8f931a32f096f6ad20c8139Available source context
site.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗
These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.
Recorded outcome: Nishesh Basavareddy (USA) bt Edas Butvilas (LTU) 6-2 6-1
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