Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsNFL · Sep 20, 10:00 AM PDT YOUR RESEARCH TASK FORECASTBaltimore Ravens RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
New Orleans Saints vs Baltimore Ravens
77.8%Baltimore Ravens
LOCKED Sep 20, 9:30 AM PDT4/4 independent models select Baltimore Ravens; all four oriented probabilities average 77.75%.
Check the evidence
The most important gap and your next source check.
- Read the model reasons and reported limits.
- Inspect available source context; record missing sources.
- Identify what remains unverified and your next action.
16 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Claude: Market line BAL -8.5 (DraftKings) implies roughly an 80% home win probability
- Gemini: Baltimore is favored by 8.5 points
- Grok: Ravens 1-0 record and 8.5-point home spread
- GPT: Baltimore is at home at M&T Bank Stadium.
Read all four model reports
Claude · Baltimore Ravens · 80.0%
DraftKings lists Baltimore -8.5 at home, which historically converts to roughly a 78-82% win probability for the favorite. Supporting context aligns: Ravens are 1-0 and hosting at M&T Bank Stadium, Saints are 0-1 on the road. No injury or quarterback information is provided for either side, so I stay near the market-implied baseline rather than adjusting further. Total of 45.5 is moderate, offering no strong variance signal that would compress or widen the favorite's edge.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Sep 19, 5:35 PM PDTGemini · Baltimore Ravens · 78.0%
The Baltimore Ravens are 8.5-point home favorites against the New Orleans Saints. In the NFL, an 8.5-point spread typically correlates to a win probability of approximately 78%. The Ravens also have the home-field advantage and a 1-0 record compared to the Saints' 0-1 start.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Sep 19, 5:35 PM PDTGrok · Baltimore Ravens · 74.0%
Baltimore enters at 1-0 as an 8.5-point home favorite against a 0-1 Saints team. The large spread and home venue indicate a substantial talent edge for the Ravens. Historical NFL outcomes show teams favored by 8+ points win approximately 73-78 percent of the time. Limited 2026 data and absence of injury or quarterback details constrain precision.
xai/grok-4.3 · Sep 19, 5:35 PM PDTGPT · Baltimore Ravens · 79.0%
Baltimore has the stronger evidence-bounded win case based on the supplied package: they are the home team, enter 1-0 versus New Orleans at 0-1, and the only market signal provided is Ravens -8.5. In NFL pricing, an 8.5-point home favorite is typically a strong favorite, and that is the most informative comparative evidence in the package. With no conflicting facts present, Baltimore should be favored clearly more often than not. I estimate the Ravens win about 79% of the time.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Sep 19, 5:35 PM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- No moneyline prices supplied; probability derived from spread conversion
- Injury lists empty for both teams - likely incomplete rather than genuinely clean
- No quarterback availability or depth-chart detail
- Weather data null for an outdoor stadium
- Only one game of 2026 results; records carry little signal
- No moneyline odds are provided, requiring an estimation based on the point spread
- Early season game (Week 2) means team strength is still uncertain
- No injury data is available in the provided evidence
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- First recorded forecast
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
66b8e91d91dfc5b6a1ece26dd8a8d21177630fae968de32fa17fbfa80b7326e8 - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
a9a945415f56d7ee41404c2f1b746405d3515a27085cfb10461f2e2254c7548e
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
This event has no eligible record in the new comparison cohort. Historical or late forecasts are not filled in after the event.
Inspect the methods and progress →Available source context
These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.
Recorded outcome: New Orleans Saints 24, Baltimore Ravens 17
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