Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsNFL · Sep 27, 10:00 AM PDT FORECASTBuffalo Bills RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
Los Angeles Chargers vs Buffalo Bills
72.8%Buffalo Bills
LOCKED Sep 27, 9:30 AM PDT4/4 independent models select Buffalo Bills; all four oriented probabilities average 72.75%.
17 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- GPT: Buffalo Bills are 2-0; Los Angeles Chargers are 0-2.
- Claude: Market line BUF -7 at home implies roughly 70-75% home win probability
- Gemini: Buffalo Bills are 7-point home favorites
- Grok: Buffalo 2-0 record vs Los Angeles 0-2 record
Read all four model reports
GPT · Buffalo Bills · 73.0%
Buffalo has the stronger point-in-time evidence package: they are 2-0, at home, and the supplied market line makes the Bills 7-point favorites. In NFL pricing, a full-touchdown home favorite typically implies a clear but not overwhelming win edge. The Chargers are 0-2 and on the road, which further supports Buffalo as the more likely winner. With no usable quarterback, injury, or weather detail beyond the package, the best evidence-bounded estimate is that Buffalo wins a bit under three-quarters of the time.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Sep 22, 9:11 PM PDTClaude · Buffalo Bills · 72.0%
The only quantitative comparative evidence is the DraftKings spread of BUF -7 with a 50.5 total, plus records (BUF 2-0, LAC 0-2). A 7-point home favorite historically converts to roughly a 70-74% win probability; a slightly elevated total nudges that marginally lower, while the record disparity is directionally consistent with the line rather than contradicting it. I therefore set Buffalo at about 72%. Confidence is moderate because no injury, quarterback status, or weather information is provided, and the line could shift before kickoff.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Sep 22, 9:10 PM PDTGemini · Buffalo Bills · 75.0%
The Buffalo Bills are 7-point home favorites against the Los Angeles Chargers. Buffalo is 2-0 while Los Angeles is 0-2. A -7 spread in the NFL typically translates to roughly a 75% implied win probability for the favorite.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Sep 22, 9:10 PM PDTGrok · Buffalo Bills · 71.0%
Buffalo enters at 2-0 with home-field advantage at Highmark Stadium while Los Angeles is 0-2. The DraftKings market line lists Buffalo as a 7-point favorite, which historically maps to roughly 70-74% implied win probability for the home side. No injury or quarterback data is supplied, but the combination of record and spread supplies the only comparative evidence available.
xai/grok-4.3 · Sep 22, 9:10 PM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- No moneyline probabilities are provided, only a spread.
- No quarterback or depth-chart information is included.
- Injury lists are empty, but the package notes injury availability can be incomplete.
- No weather information is available in the package.
- This estimate relies on limited early-season record context from only two games per team.
- No injury or QB availability data supplied for either team
- No moneyline prices, only a spread (BUF -7) and total 50.5
- No weather data
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- 14.5 percentage points higher for Buffalo Bills
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
9be9d80fb95107107f1c439abf15c80f25acc0e6f77fa26cc955bb94ab357dd0 - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
9f80bf38a7245b33cc5835097df785598d17106a2c29a5ce64f963635dc7d1bb
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
This event has no eligible record in the new comparison cohort. Historical or late forecasts are not filled in after the event.
Inspect the methods and progress →Available source context
These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.
Recorded outcome: Los Angeles Chargers 16, Buffalo Bills 24
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