Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsMMA · Oct 13, 4:00 PM PDT YOUR RESEARCH TASK FORECASTSmilla Sundell RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established Current TORK60.0% Simple average60.0% Calibrated average60.9% Kalshi82.0% Inspect the methods and progress →
Smilla Sundell vs Aline Pereira
60.0%Smilla Sundell
LOCKED Oct 13, 3:03 PM PDTAll four probabilities, converted to the same fighter, average 60% for Smilla Sundell. 3/4 models select this fighter.
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A documented difference, its timing, and limits.
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15 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Claude: Sundell 2-0 with both wins by early TKO
- Gemini: Significant age advantage for Sundell (21 vs 36)
- Grok: Sundell 2-0 with two TKO finishes in 2026
- GPT: Pereira has the larger verified pro sample: 5 recorded bouts versus Sundell's 2.
Read all four model reports
Claude · Smilla Sundell · 68.0%
Sundell is undefeated with two quick TKO finishes, is 14 years younger, and holds a three-inch height edge. Pereira is a 3-2 decision-oriented regional fighter with two losses, all her recent wins going to the cards, including a split.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 13, 12:44 PM PDTGemini · Smilla Sundell · 65.0%
Smilla Sundell enters this matchup with significant physical and demographic advantages, being 15 years younger and three inches taller than Aline Pereira. Sundell has finished both of her professional MMA bouts via TKO using knees, elbows, and punches, indicating potent striking and finishing ability. Pereira has slightly more MMA experience with five professional bouts, but has a mixed 3-2 record with all of her fights going to decision. Sundell's youth, height, and proven finishing ability make her the favored side, despite her limited overall MMA sample size.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 13, 12:44 PM PDTGrok · Smilla Sundell · 62.0%
Smilla Sundell enters with a 2-0 record featuring two first- or second-round TKOs against professional opposition in 2026. Aline Pereira holds a 3-2 record with three decisions and two prior losses. Sundell is 21 years old, 5'10", and competing at 135 lbs versus Pereira at age 35-36, 5'7", and 128 lbs. The combination of youth, height, and finishing ability in recent bouts favors Sundell on the supplied profiles.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 13, 12:43 PM PDTGPT · Aline Pereira · 55.0%
The evidence is thin, so this should stay close to a coin flip. Pereira has the more established professional sample at 3-2 with five recorded bouts across recognizable regional promotions and two recent 2025-2026 wins, both over three rounds. That gives her a modest edge in demonstrated experience and ability to handle full fight time. Sundell is undefeated at 2-0 and both wins are stoppages, which is a positive signal, but her sample is even smaller and both wins came in 2026 on the same regional circuit, so it is harder to judge how transferable that form is. The physical profile favors Sundell, who is listed 5'10 to Pereira's 5'7 and 135 lbs to 128 lbs, but without reach, style, or round-by-round metrics, that edge is hard to quantify. Age also cuts both ways: Sundell is much younger, while Pereira may hold the experience advantage. Overall, Pereira gets a narrow pre-event nod based,
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 13, 12:43 PM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- No striking, grappling, or reach metrics for either fighter
- Sundell has only two pro bouts, both regional, so level of opposition is untested
- No verified late context and no licensed pre-event odds
- Complete lack of striking and grappling statistics for both fighters
- Missing reach and stance data
- Very small professional MMA sample size for both competitors
- No striking or grappling metrics available for either fighter
- Limited professional fight samples (two and five bouts)
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- Probability unchanged
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
edeb0e3be87b0f1ff9e0f7fe1cf35193da8955b7d5e2760465f0bfaafae389dd - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
6998ead77482b6863eb6f2fa1621b58f6ba1257e3f26b3ac975dc127e6469bf2
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
All probabilities below refer to Smilla Sundell. Model inputs were fixed at Oct 13, 3:03 PM PDT. The market was observed at Oct 13, 3:00 PM PDT.
Comparison record
Saved Oct 13, 3:09 PM PDT. This is a research comparison; no method has been promoted.
59c50df62ee7fb5361f7fc2f88eadd0d147b2d851e49add4f7362b5a2c4293abAvailable source context
These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.
Recorded outcome: Smilla Sundell def. Aline Pereira · unanimous decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
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