Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsCollege Football · Oct 17, 4:00 PM PDT YOUR RESEARCH TASK FORECASTMiami Hurricanes RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
Miami Hurricanes vs Florida State Seminoles
89.4%Miami Hurricanes
NOT LOCKED4/4 independent models select Miami Hurricanes; all four oriented probabilities average 89.38%.
Check the evidence
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- Read the model reasons and reported limits.
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16 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Claude: DraftKings line MIA -19.5 implies roughly a 92-94% straight-up win probability
- Gemini: Miami is undefeated (5-0) and ranked #3.
- Grok: Miami 5-0 record and #3 ranking vs FSU 3-3 unranked
- GPT: Miami is 5-0 while Florida State is 3-3
Read all four model reports
Claude · Miami Hurricanes · 92.0%
Miami is undefeated (5-0), ranked No. 3 nationally, and is a 19.5-point favorite per DraftKings while playing at Hard Rock Stadium, its home venue. Florida State is 3-3 and unranked. A home favorite of roughly three scores historically converts to a win probability in the low-to-mid 90s; the market line, ranking gap, and record gap all point the same direction, so I anchor near 92% with a slight haircut for rivalry-game variance and unavailable injury information.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 17, 9:08 AM PDTGemini · Miami Hurricanes · 92.5%
Miami is undefeated at 5-0, ranked #3 nationally, and playing at home at Hard Rock Stadium. The betting market heavily favors the Hurricanes with a 19.5-point spread over a 3-3 Florida State team, which translates to a very high implied win probability.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 17, 9:08 AM PDTGrok · Miami Hurricanes · 87.0%
Miami enters at 5-0 with a #3 ranking while Florida State is 3-3 and unranked. The market line shows Miami favored by 19.5 points at home in Hard Rock Stadium. These factors indicate a substantial talent and form gap favoring Miami to win the game.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 17, 9:08 AM PDTGPT · Miami Hurricanes · 86.0%
Miami has the clear pregame edge based on all comparative signals in the evidence package: a better record (5-0 vs 3-3), a national ranking (#3 vs unranked), home venue at Hard Rock Stadium, and a very large market line of Miami -19.5. In college football, a spread this large typically implies a strong likelihood of the favorite winning outright. The ranking and record support that signal rather than conflict with it. Because the evidence package does not include injuries, quarterback availability, roster context, or deeper efficiency data, the estimate should remain bounded rather than extreme, but Miami is still the substantially more likely winner.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 17, 9:08 AM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- No injury, suspension, or depth-chart information supplied
- No advanced efficiency, strength-of-schedule, or opponent-quality data
- Rivalry games can produce elevated variance not captured in the line
- Single market provider quoted; no line movement or consensus available
- Event title lists Miami as away team while venue indicates a Miami home site, a minor internal ambiguity
- Advanced team efficiency metrics are not available.
- Injury reports and depth chart changes are missing.
- Weather conditions and other game-day factors are not provided.
What to watch next
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Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
794a5c73f8b2c6497854c5a236df82059e995e1f56f980139b77001647af0b4d
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
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