Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsMMA · Oct 17, 2:00 PM PDT FORECASTLouis Jourdain RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
Louis Jourdain vs Timmy Cuamba
66.1%Louis Jourdain
NOT LOCKEDAll four probabilities, converted to the same fighter, average 66.13% for Louis Jourdain. 4/4 models select this fighter.
14 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Claude: Large striking output and differential edge for Jourdain
- Gemini: Jourdain's high striking volume (7.32 SLpM) and positive differential
- Grok: Jourdain striking output 7.32/49% vs Cuamba 2.88/43%
- GPT: Jourdain’s striking metrics are materially better: 7.32 landed/min, 49% accuracy, 2.44 absorbed/min versus Cuamba’s 2.88, 43%, and 3.72 absorbed/min.
Read all four model reports
Claude · Louis Jourdain · 67.0%
Jourdain shows a far better striking profile (7.32 landed per minute at 49 percent, 2.44 absorbed) versus Cuamba's negative differential (2.88 landed, 3.72 absorbed, 5 percent takedown accuracy). Jourdain also enters on a finish streak including a DWCS submission win.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 17, 9:19 AM PDTGemini · Louis Jourdain · 68.5%
Louis Jourdain demonstrates a significant statistical advantage in striking, landing 7.32 significant strikes per minute compared to Timmy Cuamba's 2.88. Jourdain also maintains a strong positive striking differential, whereas Cuamba absorbs more strikes than he lands (3.72 SApM). Coupled with Jourdain's recent momentum, including a submission win on Dana White's Contender Series, he appears to be the more effective and dangerous fighter. Both fighters are entering this bout on roughly 15 days' notice, adding some variance, but Jourdain's offensive output makes him the clear favorite.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 17, 9:19 AM PDTGrok · Louis Jourdain · 67.0%
Jourdain holds a clear edge in verified UFC performance stats with far higher striking volume and accuracy plus a submission threat, backed by multiple recent finishes. Cuamba shows lower output and minimal takedown success in his profile. Both made bantamweight at official weigh-ins with no verified issues beyond the bout being added roughly 15 days prior.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 17, 9:19 AM PDTGPT · Louis Jourdain · 62.0%
Jourdain has the stronger pre-event statistical and recent-form case in the supplied evidence. His UFC striking profile is much more active and cleaner: 7.32 landed per minute at 49% accuracy while absorbing only 2.44 per minute, compared with Cuamba at 2.88 landed, 43% accuracy, and 3.72 absorbed. That is a substantial edge in pace and differential. Jourdain also shows submission threat at 1.41 submissions per 15 minutes, whereas Cuamba has 0.00 in the supplied stats. Recent results also favor Jourdain, with four straight wins listed, including a 2025 Contender Series submission win and multiple stoppages, while Cuamba’s recent fights are not provided at all. The late-context evidence shows this bout was added about 15 days before the event, so I have to account for possible short-prep volatility for both fighters, which lowers certainty. Weigh-ins were verified for both men and neither
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 17, 9:19 AM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- No odds, no Cuamba recent-fight log, physicals or DOB
- Stats drawn from very small UFC-level samples
- Bout added about 15 days out; camp length unverified for both
- Missing recent fight history for Timmy Cuamba
- Missing physical attributes (height, reach) for Timmy Cuamba
- Lack of licensed pre-event odds to gauge market sentiment
- Cuamba profile lacks recent fight data
- No reach or stance data for either fighter
What to watch next
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Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
4bc73715e502a5ed4c30c42f1a9d86f5ff3da89663f171b47262c9e0b2c1e112
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
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